*important* Yesterday's trade. Plus upcoming RBNZ.

Yesterday's AUD JPY trade is still ongoing. But it came within half a pip of the stop loss, which is an example of why it's essential to trade with a broker that has very tight spreads. But to also be aware: does the buy price widen? Or does the sell price widen?.

With a different broker, it's very likely the exact same trade would have stopped out. At the moment, it looks like I got lucky with that one. Although, of course, the trade could still stop out.

The reason I put stop loss below the 1hr 'hammer candle' was because that's the point I felt the trade would be invalidated. And it's interesting to note that the price rose again at the low point of the 'hammer candle'.

Moving forward, I still see no fundamental reason not to be looking for 'risk on' trades. Although the AUD in particular has been weak, which is odd considering the RBA meeting minutes were fairly hawkish. I can't pin-point the reason for the weakness. I'm currently putting it down to negativity in the Chinese stock market.

During the upcoming Asian session, we have the RBNZ interest rate meeting. And I've made the decision to leave the AUD JPY trade running through the decision (if it's still ongoing at that point). The reason being, I think it's unlikely The RBNZ will be dovish, although (similar to the recent RBA meeting) a 'neutral hold' could disappoint NZD bulls (and take the AUD lower with it). But if that happens, I think the weakness would be short lived.

So, for better or worse, I'm happy to hold risk through the event.

In other news, soft CAD CPI, puts a June BOC rate cut firmly on the table (with an outside chance of a May cut). Coming up, the BOE's Bailey has a speech, it will be interesting to gauge the timing of the first UK cut. Plus, early in Wednesday's European session, UK CPI will be reported, which could create an 'in the moment' GBP trade, especially if the data aligns with Bailey's comments.

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com