Reaction to PPI The initial reaction was a knee jerk response to the higher than expected month on month reading. But this is apparently due to a revision lower last time and all things considered it's not as high as it appears. Which for me, means short JPY or CHF trades
US data on the agenda, what to look for? Ever since the 'soft' NFP number a couple of weeks ago, there has been a sense of ' soft landing optimism' in the air. Today sees the release of PPI (which is an inflation metric) and the 'ideal' outcome would be for a below forecast
Monday 13 May. It's been a quiet start to the week, nothing has fundamentally altered my view of short JPY or CHF trades. It currently appears September is still on the table for the first rate cut from the FED. The JPY weakness has continued in particular, and any 1hr swings
Weekly review. The week starting Monday 6 May was bereft of significant US data, which led to a relatively quiet week. The vix fell below 13 and with no signs of intervention the JPY was the laggard. The only noteworthy US data came on Thursday and Friday, US jobless claims rose more
Trade closed to avoid weekend risk. To avoid weekend risk, I have closed yesterday's NZD JPY trade for a small profit of +0.4.
Stop loss manually moved to break even. I'm on uncle duty this afternoon, collecting my niece and nephew from school, so I won't be trading. But I've moved the stop loss to break even on yesterday's NZD JPY trade. This gives the trade an opportunity to complete, but ensures
Quiet trading continues. Another quiet day in the forex market, likely due to the lack of US data this week. I realise I sound like a broken record, but, with the VIX still below 14, nothing has happened to alter my preference of 'short JPY or CHF trades' as the market
Psychology lesson: Over trading / under trading. As you may know by now, I aim to place between 1 to 3 trades per week. How did I arrive at that number? It was something that happened naturally as the strategy evolved overtime. Most of my trades are placed on a 1hr chart, they can take anywhere between
Tuesday 7 May. A relatively quiet forex market at the moment. The only noticeable news of note has been a 'neutral hold' from the RBA, which disappointed Aussie bulls expecting talk of a possible hike. But all things considered, Australia still has one of the more hawkish central banks and today&
Weekly review. Down the line, we may look back on the week starting Monday 29 April as the moment the 'tide started to turn' for the USD. Recently, an undeniably strong US economy combined with hawkish FED speak as kept the USD on the front front. And the week started
The return of 'goldilocks' Today's data has seen the return of a word I've not heard for a while: 'goldilocks'. Meaning the economy is 'not too hot' or 'not too cold' ...but just right. A soft headline NFP number, combined with lower wage growth
Pre NFP thoughts. There is a case to say today's SERVICE ISM data is of more significance than NFP. Whilst I expect the usual volitility from NFP, I think it will be difficult to form a conviction until ISM is also reported. What will it take for a trade? I'
Post FOMC Following the lack of fear induced by the FOMC press conference, 'unlikely next move will be a hike', US bond yields lower. The market remains 'cautiously optimistic'. Some well timed (but not confirmed) JPY intervention threw a curve ball but doesn't alter my view
Wednesday 1 May. Monday's trade (USD CHF long) stopped out. Although it went on to hit the 'would have been' profit target. Rather than be disappointed, I take the positive outlook that at least my 'bias' for the chart to rise was correct and the fact it&
Waiting for something to happen. Nothing has materially changed to alter my preference of 'short JPY or CHF' trades. But currently, I don't have conviction in the near term direction of any of the currencies. It appears it's a case of waiting for the next 'event' whether
Weekly review. The week starting Monday 22 April was relatively sedate, 'the market' started in a good mood due to a lack of escalation in the middle east. And the good mood continued on Tuesday when US PMI's were reported softer than expected, it was the first '
CORE PCE in line with expectations. Today's core PCE data shows inflation is still sticky, but the market breathes a sigh of relief it's in-line with expectations and not higher. Combined with positive Microsoft and Alphabet earnings and 'a not so hawkish BOJ' it bodes well for a continuation of
The state of play. Today's GDP report was 'contrasting'. Lower than forecast actual GDP induces a 'bad news is good news scenario', meaning, slowing growth suggests rate cuts on the horizon. But, a higher inflation metric within the numbers suggests holding rates for longer. the initial reaction was
