Wednesday 16 July: Trump v Powell, round 6. A day that looked like it was drifting into a 'summer lull' kind of day, suddenly had bouts of volatility when the TRUMP / POWELL SAGA re-emerged. Which is making it difficult to hold an opinion at the moment. If the president wins the battle and the FED cut
Monday 14 July Despite a little bit of tariff noise, nothing has fundamentally altered my view that 'risk on' trades are viable, particularly short JPY. Although (with the exception of the strong USD, we've seen fairly lackluster movement today). Which I suspect can be put down to the market
Weekly Review The week starting Monday 7 was a fairly sanguine week. With limited US data on the agenda, all eyes were on commentary surrounding the July 9 tariff deadline. Ultimately, any tariff concerns were be brushed aside when a 'fresh deadline' of August 2 was announced. Any attempts at
RBA in focus It's a week bereft of major US data. In the main it'll be up to the 'risk environment' to determine proceedings (which currently means tariff headlines). But we do have the RBA and RBNZ rate decisions to potentially create opportunities. First up, during Tuesday&
Weekly Review The week starting Monday 30 June began with the USD on the back foot in a continuation of the previous week's narrative. With the market anticipating at least two cuts from the FED before year end. Alongside USD weakness, the overall market mood remained positive, the S&
Trade closed manually. USD short anticipation trade? I have closed yesterday's NZD JPY trade for a small profit of +0.6. (to avoid NFP risk). With an early close today due to independence day tomorrow, it's debatable whether there will be a post NFP opportunity. I do think there is a case to
Wednesday 2 July The general market mood remains positive, and particularly sentiment for the USD remains in the douldrums. All of a sudden, there is talk of three FED cuts by the end of the year (although I think that's a bit ambitious). A soft NFP report could cement multi year
Weekly Review USD weakness was the stand out theme for the week starting Monday 22 June. Abated Middle East and tariff concerns, softening US data and hawkish FED board members turning dovish, all combined to ensure the dollar was the week's laggard. It's interesting that the EUR and
Tuesday 24 June Despite bombs still dropping, the market has started to look through Middle East concerns, and also tariff concerns. Reasons to be bullish the risk environment are growing, especially as 'once hawkish' FED members are starting to turn dovish. (I wonder if the president's preference to appoint
Weekly Review A quick look at the daily AUD JPY chart throughout the week starting Monday 16 June, shows less than 50 pips from the open to the close on four consecutive days, indicating the markets lack of decisiveness. Monday started positively enough when it appeared the US was reluctant to get
Monday 16 June: The week ahead... with a splash of psychology. The market has been on high eltert since last Wednesday's US marines activity news. Tensions were heightened further following Thursday's escalation. But the new week has begun with the US stating it won't get involved, which has calmed the mood. I would suggest a
