CPI on the radar. The ‘diplomacy hopes’ Positivity continues and until we get a headline dashing the peace hopes, I think risk on trades are viable, with the USD, JPY and CHF candidates to short. The potential spanner in the works is upcoming US CPI data, a high led than forecast reading could dent
Weekly Review. The outcome of the US midterm election gave us plenty of food for thought during the week starting Monday 2 November. A clean sweep for the Democratic party makes it much more difficult for President Trump to implement legislation during the second half of his term. The true implications are
Friday 6 November. Flowing yesterdsy sell-off, it's all eyes on the next move. Will we see a recovery or further selling? NFP could dictate the mood into the weekend.
Friday 6 November: Thoughts on Thursday's sell-off . The market initially cheered the Democrat mid-term results, but as the dust settled, companies at the forefront of AI expansion started to sell-off. Ultimately taking all instruments along fur a ‘risk off ride’. My initial inclination is that this is a large bout of profit taking from overcrowded
Weekly Review I think it's fair to say I'm glad to see the back of the week starting Monday 26 October. It happens occasionally, there is so much going on that you spend your time waiting for an event, only for there to be another upcoming event soon
Thursday 29 October. Goodness me, there has been a lot going on this week. Obviously we need market moving events to create opportunities. But this week I've found that it's been difficult to form a lasting conviction, due to another event only being a few hours away. As a
Tuesday 27 October We've not had much market moving news so far this week. A lack of Middle East escalation has been greeted positively, although it is a tentative positivity. All in all, it seems the market is waiting for Wednesday's barrage of events before committing to a direction.
Weekly Review Very often, currency movement is dictated by the overall 'market risk environment'. But during the week starting Monday 19 October, we had to look a little closer to home to pin-point the movement of some of the currencies. The week began with news of civil unrest in
Understanding the Bond Market to Navigate the Currencies. When I started trading, interest rates were very low, inflation was low and if anything the overall environment was one of disinflation. As a consequence (although still important) the bond market was not a main driver of the market. Fast forward 11 years and the 'post covid lockdown era&
Weekly Review: My thoughts on the narrative and the week ahead. Understanding the USD'S 'price action' during the week starting Monday 12 October could be described as complicated. It didn't start out that way, in fact, the first half of the week was very straightforward. US CPI data was due on Wednesday, a high reading
