Weekly Review

USD weakness was the stand out theme for the week starting Monday 22 June. Abated Middle East and tariff concerns, softening US data and hawkish FED board members turning dovish, all combined to ensure the dollar was the week's laggard.

It's interesting that the EUR and particularly the CHF outshone, which meant AUD CHF went down despite the 'risk on' environment. This could be attributed to general USD liquidity skewing the other currencies against each other, although I did read that the EUR and CHF are benefitting from relatively high holdings of gold. Which is a narrative I'll be keeping an eye on.

The president did try to ruffle some tariff feathers on Friday, but currently the market sees any tariff negativity as a buying opportunity. And as the new week begins, I envision last week's themes will remain in place, I wouldn't rule out a 'general risk on' trade. But it's difficult to make a case to short any other currency other than the USD.

In other news, I didn't particularly notice any other news. Except perhaps to mention CAD weakness, which I put down to proximity to the US and also the reversal of the Middle East trade (namely the oil price reversing recent gains). There is a case to say a CAD short is viable, but whilst the 4hr swings on USD CAD are heading downwards, it's likely the USD will remain the better short.

On a personal note, I only managed one trade. AUD CHF long. Which went sideways for a couple of days before stopping out. Ultimately it turned out a USD short would have been a better option. But at the time I placed the trade, It looked like the dollar was recovering against the CHF and at that point I hadn't read about the possibility CHF is benefitting from the SNB gold reserves.

When I realised a USD short would have been better, should I have manually closed the trade and placed a USD short?

There is a case to yes. But personally, I'd rather make a decision in the moment...and let that decision play out. Rather than going down the emotional rabbit hole of interfering with the original decision.

The higher risk reward per trade will ultimately take care of your account.

Personally, from a trading perspective, it was a tough month and I'm glad to see the back of June, as I always say, the only thing that matters is how you move forward.

Please feel free to offer any thoughts or questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com

Results:

Trade 1: AUD CHF -1

Total = -1%

Total since start of blog = +39% (risking 1% per trade)