Weekly review.

During the week starting Monday 11 November there was really only one question to answer: which currency should you short Vs the USD?

USD strength is completely understandable, essentially, when the FED started cutting rates it was universally thought the 'cutting cycle' would be swift. But the strength of the US economy has argued otherwise. And we are currently in a place where 'the market' is re-evaluating the pace of US rate cuts and the FED's terminal rate in general. Whilst all the while, the prospect of a red sweep and the 'Trump trade' projects US protectionism, meaning other currencies could suffer at the expense of US tariffs.

Currently, the FED rate monitor shows a 60 percent possibility of a cut in December, down from 85% last week.

USD domination was particularly amplified in Europe with reports of potential US tarrifs hitting the eurozone. EUR weakness was Compounded by political uncertainty in Germany, I've read multiple predictions EUR USD is on its way back to parity.

Also on Monday, political uncertainty hit Japan and the yen weakened. As you know, short JPY is high on my to trade list. The caveat being BOJ intervention could happen at any moment.

Soft employment data from the UK gives the BOE pause for thought. And this week with my own eyes I've witnessed 'farmers protests' passing by my window, which is concerning but for the time being, the GBP 'should' remain one of the strongest currencies whilst the BOE airs on the mild side of hawkish. Especially Vs EUR and CHF.

AUD weakness continues to 'disappoint' me. I firmly believe the AUD 'should' be the strongest currency due to positive data coming out of Australia and the continued hawkishness from the RBA. But overblown china fears continue to weigh, combined with the falling price of iron ore. And I think it's going to take some 'meaningful' stimulus from china before the AUD is longable again.

As we know, anything can happen at any moment. And something may well happen to suddenly reverse the strength of the USD. But until it does, I'll begin the new week continuing to look for dollar long opportunities. Which currency that's against will depend on my feeling at that particular moment.

On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. Both my preferred trade at the moment USD CHF long. The first, I had to stay patient for as outside influences kept me away from the charts a little more than I would have liked. But that hard earned first trade hit profit. The second trade was far less pleasing, whilst I stand by the rational, there is a very strong case to say I shouldn't have taken the trade. My thoughts on Friday trading are well documented. I envisioned USD weakness into the market close, especially following a strong week for the dollar. And the trade didn't last long before hitting the stop loss.

But we mustn't dwell on losing trades. As I always say, the only thing that matters is how you move forward. And that's to continue focusing on making decisions you would stand by tomorrow.

And as mentioned, I do stand by the rational of the trade. And it could well be that I take the same trade again early in the new week.

Results:

Trade 1: USD CHF +1.5

Trade 2: USD CHF -1

Total = +0.5%

Total since start of blog = +35.9% (risking 1% per trade).