Weekly review.

Week starting Monday 28 October:

If you wrote down a scenario: Company earnings 'by and large' positive, disinflation still on track (particularly in Switzerland) 'soft' US GDP and NFP data. I would say more often than not, it would have been a week of 'risk on soft landing trades' which would be likely to continue thanks to the soft GDP and NFP data ensuring the FED has room to continue cutting rates (bad news is good news).

But a plethora of other narratives ensured it was a much more complex week. Namely, the UK budget, the pound weakened, strengthened, then weakened again post announcement. But the takeaway was an alarming rise in UK yields. Underlying middle east fears are never too far away, there was one particular headline suggesting an escalation is imminent. The BOJ held interest rates, whilst simultaneously sounding hawkish and dovish. Which leaves the short yen carry trade in limbo. But the biggest spanner in the weeks narrative was the US election. The polls suggest an extremely tight race and some aspects of the 'Trump trade' may have been unwound. Towards the end of the week, I came to the conclusion the sensible thing to do was to wait for the outcome of the election before feeling confident in placing another trade.

The shining star of the week was the EUR. which goes to show how fortunes can change, for a long time the EUR has been embedded on the 'to short list'. But a 'profit taking bounce' at the end of the previous week has turned into genuine positivity has eurozone GDP and inflation data has caused EUR rate cut bets to be unwound. And whilst I didn't partake, I would suggest any EUR long trades this week would have been a shrewd idea.

On a personal note, I once again found it difficult to form a conviction in the direction of the currencies and it was a week of just one trade. A USD CHF long '4hr support and resistance' trade based on the underlying USD strength Vs the dovish SNB. Towards the end of the week I came to the conclusion the sensible thing to do was to wait for the outcome of the US election before feeling confident in placing a trade. And I'll begin the new week unable to form a bias until the election result is clear.

Results for week:

Trade 1: USD CHF +1.5

Total = +1.5%

Total since start of blog = +35.2% (risking 1% per trade).