Weekly review

The week starting Monday 30 September was another 'by and large' positive week. Although the positivity was briefly paused on Tuesday due to escalating middle east fears. Which, unfortunately don't appear to be going away anytime soon and will be a constant underlying risk to any 'risk on' trades.

Putting trading to one side, the truly awful conditions people are put through is a stark reminder to myself to never take anything for granted and be grateful for everything I have.

US data continues to better forecasts, particularly Friday's NFP, which was a 'wow' number. The dollar ended the week as the strongest currency, as pricing for an extra 0.75bp of rates cuts this year is trimmed to 0.5bp. US yields have risen and for the time being, the USD has added itself to my 'potential to long list', Vs either JPY or CHF. Particularly as it turns out the incoming Japanese prime minister may not be as 'hawkish' as the market thought. And the incoming SNB chair confirms a 'dovish bias'.

If US data continues to better forecasts, there is the risk of inflation re-accelerating. But for now, 'good news is good news' and I'll start the week with a mind for 'risk on' soft landing trades. Preferably, AUD or USD Vs JPY or CHF.

Regarding the other currencies, the CAD had a good week as the price of oil rose (and of course, the CAD often tracks the USD).

The BOE surprised with the first signs of dovishness, the GBP was hit by the news as it's added to the list of central banks that may cut rates more than thought, along with EUR and NZD. But whilst these currencies are going up Vs JPY, I'm not discounting them as 'risk on' trades.

On a personal note, it was a week of two trades, both AUD JPY, trying to take advantage of the positive mood. Monday's hit profit and Thursdays stopped out, as there wasn't any appetite pre NFP. I do feel like I missed a couple of opportunities this week due to not being at the charts. Namely the particularly positive mood on Wednesday. The GBP was arguably tradable short 'in the moment' of the BOE news, but I didn't feel comfortable trading it a few hours after the fact. And of course, NFP was arguably tradable as a catalyst on Friday.

Non the less, one hit profit and one stop out every week would be a very good year. Lets see what the new week brings.

Results:

Trade 1: AUD JPY +1.5

Trade 2: AUD JPY -1

Total = +0.5%

Total since start of blog = +30.5% (risking 1% per trade)