Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 23 September was a calm week. The risk environment remained positive as the soft landing narrative continued, US GDP, JOBLESS CLAIMS and core PCE all signaling a healthy economy with the disinflation process in tact. Adding to the positivity was china's attempts to stimulate it's economy.

All in all, if the FED remains content cutting interest rates into a healthy economy, the VIX should remain low, the S&P remain positive and 'risk on soft landing' trades should remain at the forefront.

It was nice to see the JPY weak for most of the week, until Friday's surprise election result. The incoming prime minister is expected to air on the side of hawkish, which saw the yen strengthen on Friday. Will this strength be sustainable? My hope is not but we'll have to let the 'price action' of the JPY dictate whether short yen is an option. Or whether to focus on CHF and USD shorts (as long as the risk environment remains positive).

In other news, an SNB rate cut with dovish narrative keeps the CHF on the 'to short list'. And soft PMI data from the eurozone enhances the potential for short EUR 'relative fundamental' trades. Finally, the RBA remains 'cautiously bullish' keeping the AUD at the top of my 'to long list'.

On a personal note, it was very nice to have a week of two trades, both hitting profit. But just as importantly as not getting too down with loosing trades. It's imperative not to get carried away with a couple of winning trades. Remaining vigilant, being truthful with yourself and only making decisions you'd stand by tomorrow. Currently, barring a fresh 'powerful catalyst', I'm inclined to place a stop loss behind 'nice 1hr support'.

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com

Results for week :

Trade 1: AUD JPY +1.5

Trade 2: AUD JPY +1.5

Total = +3%

Total since start of blog +30% (risking 1% per trade)