Weekly review.
Week starting Monday 12 August was a fairly serene week, Us data, namely, RETAIL SALES, CPI and JOBLESS CLAIMS all suggesting a 'soft landing' is still on the cards. And the 'risk recovery' continued following the recent 'crash landing panic'. Which is a good example of how emotional the market can be. And to remember not to get too caught up in the hysterical narrative when panic sets in. I don't wish to sound blase', but it's noticeable how quiet the SAHM rule and emergency rate cuts proponents have been this week.
In other news, reports the SNB are very comfortable with a weak currency keeps CHF shorts as a viable option in a positive environment. A 'dovish cut' from the RBNZ makes AUD NZD long a potential trade, especially whilst data from Australia remains generally positive and the RBA keeps a hawkish narrative.
Slightly mixed but generally positive data from the UK should also keep the GBP on the 'to long' list. And similar to AUD NZD... EUR CHF long is a potential 'relative fundamental' trade.
Although we are never too far away from: US election news, middle east concerns, or soft data causing panic. For now, I'll begin the new week with my bias for 'risk on' trades intact. Although we could see quiet trading in the lead up to Jackson hole, which will likely be the main event of the week.
On a personal note. It ended up a slightly disappointing week, with three trades...a 'risk on' trade early in the week hit profit. But an anticipation pre CPI trade stopped out. I then missed the post US RETAIL / JOBLESS CLAIMS opportunity. Only to place an early Friday morning 'risk on trade' which stopped out.
I'm now about to start packing my bags as I prepare for an early morning flight back to the UK after three wonderful weeks in Thailand. With a total of four trades, two hitting profit and two stopped out, I've enjoyed trading in an Asian time zone, although it does come with certain challenges, mainly the fact the main US data releases are late at night. And if I was trading full time in the Asian time zone, I would treat the red flag AUD and NZD data releases as potential catalyst or anticipation trades, either against each other, the JPY or USD. And for the US data releases, it's a decision to either stay up into the early hours of the morning, which probably isn't sustainable long term. So I would most likely wait for an identifiable US data catalyst, then wait for a couple of. 1hr swings before taking a 'standard trade'. I do have a couple of subscribers in Australia and I'm curious how you go about your trading day.
Results for week:
Trade 1: AUD CHF +1.5
Trade 2: AUD USD -1
Trade 3: AUD CHF -1
Total = -0.5%
Total since start of blog= +27.1% (risking 1% per trade ).
If anyone has any questions at all, feel free to email:
Johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com.