Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 1 July started with a little uncertainty in the air, which had carried over from the previous week. But as we know 'the market' will take any chance it can to price in rate cuts and a soft landing. And thankfully, chair Powell gave the green light on Wednesday with a fairly dovish sounding speech at the ECB economic forum. Even the FOMC minutes weren't as 'hawkish' as feared. And the 'soft landing narrative' was back.

So it was over the NFP to either confirm or deny the positivity. And after a bit of consideration (was the unemployment number too high?) the market decided it liked the data, 'risk on' continued and the USD ended the week softly as a September rate cut is still on the cards.

Of course, every piece of upcoming data will still be scrutinised. And it will only take a couple of 'hot' US data prints for fears of a 'hard landing' to re-emerge.

But for now, with the S&P pushing all time highs and the VIX still below 13, I'll begin the new week looking for 'risk on' opportunities.

In other news, soft employment data from Canada puts the CAD back on the 'to short list'.

The UK election passed by uneventfully, the GBP remained fairly strong throughout. The pound is also a beneficiary of the 'risk on' environment.

I've not read any weekend reports regarding the french election, but that's something to keep an eye on as the week begins.

On a personal note, it was a fairly straightforward week of two trades. AUD CHF 'interest rate differential' trade backed up by the post Powell positivity. And an AUD CAD Friday trade, thanks to the soft Canadian data, also backed up by the 'risk on' environment.

Results for the week:

Trade 1: AUD CHF +1.5

Trade 2: AUD CAD +1

Total= +2.5%

Total since start of blog= +25.2% (risking 1% per trade).

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com