Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 22 April was relatively sedate, 'the market' started in a good mood due to a lack of escalation in the middle east. And the good mood continued on Tuesday when US PMI's were reported softer than expected, it was the first 'chink' in the USD armour for a while and a reminder that eventually, rate cuts will come from the FED.

Earnings season is (so far) once again passing by with positivity, VISA, MICROSOFT and ALPHABET standing out with positive reports, showing that as yet, interest rates are not having a detrimental effect on company growth.

The good mood continued throughout Wednesday, then on Thursday, US GDP headline number came in lower than expected (bad news is good news) but the inflation metric 'under the bonnet' indicated higher inflation ahead, which had the market a little nervous for Friday's core PCE number. Although the number did show inflation is still sticky, the market breathed a sigh of relief it wasn't too high. And for now, a September cut is still on the cards and any talk of more hikes from the FED has disappeared.

Arguably the biggest news of the week came from Japan. USD JPY had already comfortably breezed past 155 before the BOJ meeting. And governor Ueda disappointed yen bulls with a tepid press conference. It appears the BOJ has lost control and it it will be up to the FED's side of the equation to determine when USD JPY reverses course. In the meantime, there is no telling how much further the JPY could weaken, it's likely 160 will be the next talked about potential intervention point.

On a personal level, it was a positive week of four trades, three hitting profit and one stopped out. And I currently expect to start the week looking for 'interest rate differential' trades, which still means short JPY or CHF, especially when a stop loss can be placed behind 'nice 1hr support'.

Results for week:

Trade 1: AUD CHF +1.5

Trade 2: AUD CHF +1.5

Trade 3: AUD CHF +1.3

Trade 4: USD CHF -1

Total = +3.3%

Total since start of blog= +23% (risking 1% per trade).

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com