Weekly review.

It was a slow start to the week starting Monday 8 April, as it appeared 'the market' was waiting for Wednesday's CPI. The number came in higher than forecast, the FED has consistently reiterated a data dependent approach. And the data keeps forcing 'the market' to push back rate cut predictions, it currently appears September is the likely date for the first US rate cut.

Elsewhere, other central banks are staring to show their hand, this week we had:

NZD: hawkish

CAD: dovish

EUR: dovish

Over the medium term, I expect the currencies to form relative strength and weakness when there is a potential adjustment to the date of the first cut or how many cuts before the end of the year. For what it's worth, here is my revised opinion on the potential date of each bank likely to cut. (JPY and CHF excluded).

EUR: June

CAD: June

GBP: August or later

USD: September

NZD: November

AUD: November or later

Of course, it's never quite that simple, there are always a few spanners waiting to be thrown into the mix, for example, it's difficult to short the CAD if the price of oil keeps rising. Or it's difficult to long the NZD if the market is in a 'risk off' mood.

On a personal level, it was a week with three trades:

AUD CHF 'interest rate differential' closed before RBNZ meeting.

USD CHF 'CPI catalyst trade'

AUD JPY 'interest rate differential trade'

You may be wondering, why close the AUD CHF trade before the RBNZ but leave the USD CHF trade running through the BOC meeting? It was just an in the moment gut feeling that anything the BOC meeting threw up couldn't overpower the CPI data. But I must stress that 99 times out of 100, I would find it prudent not to hold risk during an interest rate decision.

Moving forward, US retail sales on Monday, plus developments in the Middle East will determine the markets mood. Hopefully Iran's statement that the recent attacks have concluded will draw a line under the matter for now, but the next 18 hours are critical.

Results for week:

Trade 1: AUD CHF +0.3

Trade 2: USD CHF +1.5

Trade 3: AUD JPY -1

Total= +0.8%

Total since start of blog = +20.8% (risking 1% per trade).

Please feel free to comment or ask questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com