Weekly review

This past week started with a waiting game, waiting for the FED, the ECB and the BOJ to give clarity on the future path of rate hikes.

First up on Wednesday was the FED, which was deemed as a dovish hike, Mr Powells retoric of data dependence gave the market the green light to sell dollars and buy stocks. Thursdays data from the US then caused a bit of a re-think, strong GDP and a still robust jobs market suggest the FED may not quite be done hiking yet, next up came the ECB. Which didn't disappoint, similar to the US with a dovish hike. Ms Lagarde surprised me, and I think the market by sounding so dovish on the prospect of further hikes. With the Eurozone economy in a precarious position, I suspect a bumpy road ahead for the euro.

Finally, Fridays Asian session delivered the long awaited BOJ decision, which was a hold but with a slight tweak to yield curver control. The return on a 10 year Japanese bond will now be allowed to go above 0.5%, up to a maximum of 1%. The initial reaction was considerable JPY strength. But once the dust settled JPY strength reversed. I suspect that the tweak is so incremental that ultimately its not enough to stem JPY weakness.

In other news, earnings are still coming in on the healthy side, which should give credence to the soft landing narative.

On a personal note, it was a disappointing week result wise.

Trade 1:   GBP USD   -1

Trade 2:    USD JPY    -1

Trade 3:    GBP USD    0

Trade 4:     EUR USD  -1

Trade 5:     USD JPY   +1

Total =                          -2

Total since start of blog = +2%

So a loosing week this week, that's ok, it happens. I'll start next week wondering if short JPY trades are an option whilst reminding myself to only make decisions I'll stand by in the future.