Weekly review

Following last Friday's NFP, the dollar started the week softly, I tried to take advantage of this with a EUR USD long trade on monday in anticipation the USD would remain weak in the lead up to CPI. Which was expected to be lower than forecast, in part thanks to softer used car prices.

Dollar weakness continued into the run up to CPI, because I was out for the day and didn't want to hold any risk during the CPI release, I closed my EUR USD trade for a profit of 1:1.

CPI did indeed come in softer than forecast, I tried to take advantage on Thursday morning (UK time) by setting a limit order GBP USD long. Unfortunately the order didn't trigger. Then on Thursday afternoon, PPI data was released which also backed up the disinflation narative. This time I tried to take advantage with a GBP JPY trade, I decided to trade the JPY short because I felt the USD may have been supported by a still robust jobs market, plus I felt the Yen had been unjustly strong and could weaken due to soft landing talk coming out of the US. But the GBP JPY trade stopped out before subsequently going on to hit what would have been the profit target.

In other news, the GBP was strong, thanks to higher wage data. Canada raised interest rates and New Zealand held its rate steady. But all in all the week was dominated by the disinflation narative from the US.

There was a slight push back on Friday, with talk of another two interest-rate hikes from the fed. But I'll start next week thinking any signs of another leg of USD weakness could be traded.

In summary, for me personally, it was a week of good ideas that didn't come to fruition. That's OK, it happens, I must simply stay focused on making good decisions.

Results for the week:

Trade 1:  EUR USD  +1

Trade 2:  GBP JPY    -1

Total:                          0  (break-even)