Weekly Review

I think it's fair to say the week starting Monday 29 June isn't going to be one to stick in the memory.

The week began quietly and just never really got going. The market didn't seem to want to get it's teeth into anything. With no standout headlines, quarter end and summer vacation seemed to sap liquidity, even a significantly below forecast headline NFP number couldn't produce sustained movement.

During the early part of the week, JPY weakness was the standout theme, intervention threats falling on deaf ears. A theory gathered steam that intervention is unlikely ahead of NFP, prompting JPY weakness. Qué: What suspiciously looked like intervention on NFP eve.

Whether it was actual intervention remains to be seen. But there is now a new theory that the BOJ / MOF are changing tact how intervention is approached. A developing story that is worth keeping an eye on.

Circling back to NFP, I'm very intrigued how stubborn the USD was post data. A lack of follow through selling after the initial weakness could be attributed to quiet 'pre independence day trading'. Or it could be a sign that the market thinks the US economy is still too strong to warrant a weaker USD. All in all, I begin the new week without a clear bias. Although if pushed, considering the price of oil is now below pre war levels, inflation fears are subsiding, my preference would be for a return of 'soft landing risk on trades'. But I'll let the 'price action' and 'narrative' unfold before feeling confident enough to place a trade.

On a personal note, given the lack of juicy headlines, I struggled to find enough confidence in a narrative. I was tempted by JPY short early in the week but didn't find enough confidence at the time I visited the charts.

My only trade being a post NFP, USD short, An AUD USD long which stopped out. Arguably it was a bold trade given the underlying wage growth and unemployment data.

I'll begin the new week looking for clues as to whether the USD will eventually weaken, or find another bout of strength.

Results:

Trade 1: AUD USD -1

Total = -1%

Total since start of blog = +56.2% (risking 1% per trade).