Weekly Review

Another week, another record high for the S&P 500 as the market continued to ignore geoploitical risks during the week starting Monday 4 May. Tech stocks were the main beneficiary as any 'pre war A.I concerns' seem to have been dispelled by recent earnings.

The USD and CAD were the laggards as the 'war trade' reverses, although the JPY wasn't far behind despite another bout of apparent intervention.

The RBA hiked rates, perhaps not sounding quite as hawkish as the market anticipated but further hikes are still on the cards.

A word we've not heard for a while (Tariff) reaered its head in Europe. And local UK elections didn't affect the GBP, both the euro and pound supported by the positive risk environment and weaker USD.

The market liked Friday's higher than forecast NFP data. But it didn't do much for the USD, perhaps as the data wasn't too good to induce talk of imminent FED hikes. Soft jobs data from Canada did further dent sentiment for the CAD.

As much as I still think the market is a little complacent looking through the war risk (specifically the potential for higher oil price). I can't ignore the narrative and price action and I'll begin the new week with a bias for more of the same 'risk on', preferably following pullbacks without significant news.

Arguably the CAD has inserted itself into the 'to short list,' along with the USD and JPY. Although any JPY short trades come with the significant risk of abrupt bouts of 'intervention strength'.

On a personal note, I didn't quite find myself at the charts at a time I felt confident. Maybe it's just me but I thought a lot of the American sessions were a little lackluster. It seemed that a lot of the week's moves happened during the Asian session when I was asleep. I did manage one trade. A GBP USD long during Thursday's European session. Sticking to 'session by session' trading, I closed the trade in profit before the American open.

After last week's mild frustration regarding 'session by session trading', this week it worked in my favour as the trade would have stopped out as the market took a breather before NFP.

Lets see what the new week brings.

Results:

Trade 1: GBP USD +0.5

Total = +0.5%

Total since start of blog = +55.1% (risking 1% per trade).