Weekly review.

Monday 9 October started with JPY opening gaps in response to the awful Israel / Palestine news. Although this didn't turn into full scale 'risk off' fear, it was something that simmered in the background all week. Reaching levels of high anxiety on Friday, with the price of oil and gold rising significantly, on the prospect of the situation taking a turn for the worse over the weekend.

By Tuesday, the initial fear had subsided, the VIX was down, stocks were recovering and I felt a short JPY trade was a viable option, It was an interest rate differential trade placed in a calm market, I chose the AUD simply because at the time I felt it was the 'carry trade' currency that had the most going fo it. Ultimately it was a trade that went sideways until I closed it out at break even before PPI was released on Thursday. Importantly, I still think it was a viable trade at the time.

Speaking of PPI, the number came in slightly higher than expected, I felt this created a long dollar opportunity, I just wanted to wait and see how the dust settled before deciding if the JPY was the currency to short, or one of the 'risk positive' currencies. By Friday I had my answer, with the environment still negative ( higher for longer, Israel uncertainty, disappointing Chinese Data during the Asian session) so I placed a NZD USD 1:1 Friday trade, I chose the kiwi as there had been poor NZD data during the Asian session. This trade went on to hit the profit target.

So, the week ends with more questions than answers at the moment, is the market comfortable with higher rates? Will there be another hike from the FED? can USD JPY break and remain above 150? And sadly, will the Israel / Palestine conflict escalate? Let's hope with all our hearts for a peaceful resolution.

Results for week:

Trade 1: USD JPY 0

Trade 2: NZD USD +1

Total = +1

Total since start of blog = +9%