Weekly Review

The week starting Monday 13 April began with an 'opening gap lower' but sentiment quickly recovered and it was a one way recovery for the rest of the week. With the S&P hitting new all time highs, it's quite a remarkable turnaround, especially given the positivity has been based on hope rather than substance.

The market has been anticipating an end to the war and the reopening the Hormuz strait. On Friday we did get the substance we've been waiting for, an announcement the strait was open. Which did bode very well for the upcoming week. But weekend news that negotiations have hit a stumbling block, the strait is closed again and it could be that we'll have to continue trading positive and negative headlines on a session by session basis for a little while yet.

In other news, positive employment data keeps the RBA hawkish, the BOJ continues to deliver mixed messages regarding potential future hikes, NETFLIX delivered positive earnings but poor guidence. And despite a slue of speakers, the FED rate mointor continues to suggest the next move will be a cut. But in the grand scheme of things, the market's main focus remains the Hormuz strait, until the passage of oil is consistently back at full capacity, past data and future guidance is rendered almost moot.

On a personal note, it was a week of three trades. A win, a loss and a draw. They were all 'risk on' trades as I felt the mood was too positive to ignore. Monday's AUD USD hit profit. Continuing the session by session trading I closed Wednesday's NZD USD for a very small profit. Perhaps Thursdays AUD USD long was a little ambitious given how far the chart has already travelled purley on anticipation, the trade stopped out fairly quickly.

Despite Fridays Hormuz strait news, which on another day I suspect I would have seen as a certain 'long opportunity', as it was friday and given the recent susceptibility to 'taking risk off the table ahead of the weekend', I chose to sit on the sidelines and observe.

Let's see what the new week brings, once again it's all eyes on the Hormuz strait.

Results:

Trade : 1 AUD USD +1.5

Trade 2: NZD USD +0.3

Trade 3: AUD USD -1

Total= +0.8%

Total since start of blog = +53.6% (risking 1% per trade)