Weekly Review

During the week starting Monday 6 April, the Market slowly started to anticipate the reopening of the Hormuz strait. But it wasn't a straightforward journey and we are not 'out of the woods' yet.

The week began with President Trump's April 6 deadline being pushed back 24 hours. By late on Tuesday, an announcement that a ceasefire was in place as conditions had been met to start negotiations. Risk assets jumped higher during wednesday's Asian session.

Unfortunately, a ceasefire isn't the strait of Hormuz opening. I started to get the sense that the optimism was very fragile and for the rest of the week it seemed like one hurdle was cleared, another one appeared, as the back and forth headlines from recent weeks continued.

Away from 'war news' US data remains positive but not too positive to warrant a change in FED expectations just yet, we remain in the 'higher for longer' holding pattern rather than thoughts a FED hike is needed.

The RBNZ delivered a fairly hawkish hold and the BOJ continues to threaten hikes and or intervention. All in all, if the strait of Hormuz re-opens soon, conditions are in place for a 'soft landing' risk on rally. (At least until AI concerns rears its head again).

But for now, its all eyes on negotiations, which according to the most recent headlines haven't gone great so far.

On a personal note, although I was technically 'on holiday' (I can strongly recommend Turkey by the way), I was attempting to trade but it turned out to be a week of zero trades.

I didn't feel comfortable trading before the deadline passed. By the time I got to the charts post deadline I felt the initial move had gone too far too quickly, then the back and forth headlines began. Arguably I could have had more faith in a risk on trade throughout the week, perhaps I've been a little too conditioned to the recent negativity. But all in all, I don't think there is any harm in being particularly prudent at the moment. At least until there is solid indication the Hormuz strait will be fully operational soon.

I begin the new week in a similar vein, prepared to trade headlines on a session by session basis. 'hoping' we'll get some clarity soon.

Please feel free to email any thoughts or questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com

Results:

Zero trades (I think that's only happened once before).

Total = 0%

Total since start of blog = +52.8% (risking 1% per trade).