Weekly Review

Overall market sentiment was neither here nor there during the week starting Monday 30 March. A continuation of back and forth headlines made it difficult to have confidence price would sustain in either direction.

The definitive narrative remains 'how long will the strait of Hormuz remain closed?'

President Trump's speech on Tuesday shut down any early week positivity and it was up and down, session by session, from there. With the week limping to a close, despite very good NFP data, due to 'good Friday volume'.

As the new week begins, the playbook remains the same, the USD strengthens in correlation with oil on negative Hormuz strait news and weakens alongside oil on positive Hormuz straight news. As discussed in the week, for the time being, I've made the decision to trade session by session, at least until oil is passing through the Hormuz strait at maximum capacity. Even though this may result in 'leaving money on the table', on balance, I think it's the most sensible way to trade the choppy headlines. I'm very curious to see the outcome of the April 6 deadline president Trump spoke of a couple of weeks ago.

In other news, positive US data (ISM and NFP) is obviously good news for the USD. But as of all recent data, it's largely taken with a pinch of salt until the 'oil shock narrative' concludes.

Another 'side piece of news' is a brewing storm regarding just how good the next generation of AI will be at 'hacking', which will likely be the next piece of negativity the market latches on to. But for now, all eyes remain on the Hormuz strait.

On a personal note, it was a disappointing week of two trades. Both stopped out as the narrative flipped the following session. Believing that the path of least resistance remained on the downside, Monday's AUD USD short stopped out on Tuesday and Thursday's European session AUD USD short stopped out as sentiment briefly turned positive during Thursday American session.

Moving forward, I've currently swapped the North Wales wind and rain for Turkey's wind and rain. The weather forecast for Turkey this coming week is for sunshine, let's hope the market follows suit.

I'll most likely sit on the sidelines on Easter Monday during low volume and as the market awaits the outcome of the April 6 deadline. From Tuesday I'll be prepared to trade in either direction according to the narrative, reiterating that I'll close each trade before the AMERICAN session begins or before end of day, at least until the Hormuz strait is fully operational.

Results:

Trade 1: AUD USD -1

Trade 2: AUD USD -1

Total = -2%

Total since start of blog = +52.8% (risking 1% per trade).