Weekly Review.

The oil shock narrative remained the dominant theme during the week starting Monday 16 March. Especially given it was a week filled with interest rate decisions.

The week began positivley enough, mildly encouraging weekend 'war news' (some oil is getting through the Hormuz strait). Combined with NVIDEA'S GTC day ensured a 'risk on' environment on Monday and Tuesday. But negativity is never too far away at the moment and the rest of the week's events led to another 'week of two halves'.

The early week positivity started to dwindle on Wednesday as the market prepared for the FED rate decision. I envisioned the FED would offer 'wait and see guidance' but if anything, chair POWELL was quite hawkish, the S&P fell and yields rose as the 'risk off kettle' started to boil.

Thursday was an interesting day, the USD weakened as the BOJ, ECB and BOE suggested rate hikes are on the horizon. The theory being the USD weakened because (on Thursday) the market was thinking the FEDs next move would still be a cut, just a delayed cut. Essentially we got a glimmer of 'intrest rate speculation movement'. I'm sceptical it's a narrative that has any staying power whilst oil keeps rising. It won't be long before 'stagflation concerns' hit all oil importing countries, particularly the UK, EUROPE and JAPAN.

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