Weekly review

The week starting Monday 2 October was again, mainly dominated by the strong dollar, high yields story. With a little bit of JPY intervention (?) thrown into the mix.

Monday was a fairly quiet day, as it often is in Forex. On Tuesday, I tried to take advantage of USD strength by placing a EUR USD short trade, I chose the euro to short as I feel the European economy is the one in the most precarious position at the moment. Then, as Tuesdays US session was getting going, a large spike in the JPY charts appeared. It has all the hallmarks of intervention, an attempt to stem JPY weakness. whether it was intervention was neither confirmed or denied. Either way, whether it was or it may have simply been large pre-set sell orders at 150 on USD JPY. My thoughts were that it wasn't going to be enough to stop JPY weakness and the yen would remain shortable once the dust settled. By Wednesdays US session, I felt the dust had settled and placed an AUD JPY long in relatively calm markets, I chose the AUD to long as economically Australia is in a fairly good place and I feel it's the go to carry trade currency at the moment. By Thursday, the market was in wait and see mode ahead of NFP, which didn't disappoint. A huge beat on the forecast initially sent the dollar higher. I placed a Friday afternoon USD JPY long. As the US session got underway, the dollar strength reversed against the 'risk on' currencies. Some cited softening wage growth, or it may be that with bond rates at the highest for years, thus tightening credit, this could do the feds job for them, therefore, there won't be anymore hikes....or, it could just have been Friday afternoon profit taking. I'll be eagerly watching the start of next week for signs of dollar strength. I'll also be starting next week with my short JPY bias intact, at least whilst below USD JPY 150.

In other news, the CAD had an eventful week, at the mercy of weakening oil, but boosted on Friday by a good Canadian jobs report. AUD and NZD interest rate decisions were a non entity and I expect all currencies to be at the behest of the risk environment or appitite for US dollars.

Results for week:

Trade 1:  EUR USD -1

Trade 2:  AUD JPY +1

Trade 3:  USD JPY   0

Total:  +0.5

Total since start of blog = +8%