Weekly Review

The week starting Monday 26 January was another example of the particularly difficult environment, especially for traders making decisions based on underlying fundamentals.

Currently, central banks are all reporting 'being in a good place', the interest rate speculation trade has taken a back seat and the market is left grasping on bits of information that may or may not be lasting. This week alone has been very 'bitty', Microsoft falling despite positive earnings (thanks to company specific AI overspending concerns), concerns about Iran, another possible US government shutdown, sell America or not, BOJ intervention or not, new FED chair nomination, volatile swings for gold and silver.

None of the above has really been stark enough to become a 'get your teeth into event' but they've all played a part in this week's price action. Reducing the FOMC meeting to role of bit part player.

Ultimately, I think everything is a placeholder until 'interest rate differential trades' kick in again and over the medium term, I expect the USD and JPY weakness to continue, but it could be a choppy road requiring nimble decisions.

Aside from tentative thoughts for JPY short trades, I begin the new week without a clear bias, letting price action and narrative determine my thoughts on the currencies direction over the next few hours. Hopefully upcoming US data will provide a bit more clarity.

On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. A NZD USD long hit profit early in the week when sentiment for the USD remained subdued. Friday's post PPI data USD JPY long was an example of an attempt to be nimble as the tide slowly improved for the USD, largely due the the nomination of WARSH for FED chair providing stability after months of FED independence concerns.

The trade stopped out very quickly before heading back up. An example of having to make a decision in the moment of whether to wait for a 15 min swing or not. Keep an eye out for my thoughts on 'understanding your inner peace when placing a trade'. Which I hope to have sent out in a couple of days .

That brings the first month of the year to a close, a bit of a scrappy month but it ended with a small profit.

RBA, BOE, some RED FLAG US DATA and more company earnings to keep us occupied this week.

Results:

Trade 1: NZD USD +1.5

Trade 2: USD JPY -1

Total = +0.5%

Total since start of blog = +49.3% (risking 1% per trade).