Weekly Review

Despite geopolitical angst, the S&P touched fresh all time highs during the week starting Monday 4 January. The US action in Venezuela and growing focus on Greenland bubbled under the surface but didn't cause panic.

As for the for the currencies, the USD ended the week at the top of the pile. 'Mixed data' not being 'weak' enough to alter the FED'S view that two rate cuts throughout 2026 will suffice, boosted sentiment for the dollar.

Following closely behind, the AUD had a good week, RBA rhetoric remains hawkish despite a couple of 'softer data releases'.

The JPY was mixed, rate hike rhetoric is never too far away and continues to give the yen bouts of strength but a squabble with China and the possibility of a snap election kept the JPY subdued. I continue to view and yen strength as ultimately a 'short JPY' opportunity.

The GBP had a quiet week, a lack of UK data didn't give traders much to work with but the GBP was propped up by the tentativiity positive environment.

The EUR and CHF were both soft all week, dented by below forecast European CPI data and opposite to the GBP, the mildly positive risk tone can be detrimental to both the EUR and CHF.

At the bottom of the pile was the CAD, despite reasonable data. I suspect uncertainty surrounding the price of oil weighed on the CAD.

All in all, I begin the new week without a clear bias, tentatively looking for 'risk on' short JPY trades. US CPI data will be on the markets mind to determine the next move of the USD. And I'll be keeping a keen eye on any Greenland news, which could create a strong 'risk off' period. Plus it seems likely we could get the supreme court 'tariff decision' this week. Which could be very market moving.

On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. Early in the week a CAD CHF long, the CAD didn't kick on as perhaps other currency's did and the trade was closed at break even before end of day. On Thursday, a AUD JPY long stopped out before continuing its upward trajectory.

All in all, a bit of a disappointing first week back. Let's see what the new week brings.

Results:

Trade 1: CAD CHF 0

Trade 2: AUD JPY: -1

Total = -1%

Total since start of blog = +46.3% (risking 1% per trade).