Weekly Review

It was very pleasing that, by and large, the week starting Monday 24 November was a 'risk on' week.

Following on from the 'WILLIAMS' comments the previous Friday, the positive mood was enhanced by some 'goldilocks' US data on Tuesday. And the 'risk on sentiment' remained for the rest of the week, briefly taking a pause during Thanksgiving. But returning for a final flourish on Friday.

Given how difficult the past few months have been, this week's 'narrative and price action' was comforting and encouraging , trading is much more straightforward when the overall mood is positive and I begin the new week continuing my bias for 'risk on' trades. But it should be noted that it would only take some 'hot US data', or a 'hawkish comment' for the uncertainty to return. And that's without mentioning anything the BOJ or President Trump could send our way. And as ever I'll be keeping any eye on the VIX and the S&P along with keeping up to speed with the narrative.

In other news, the AUD, NZD and GBP had 'good weeks', obviously boosted by the positive environment but also their own fundamentals, 'hot' AUD CPI, a 'hawkish cut' from the RBNZ and the UK budget appeased GBP sentiment.

It's a slow process but peace in the UKRAINE creeps ever closer (EUR and GBP positive) and finally, 'hot GDP' boosted the CAD on Friday, it could well be that (similar to NZD) front loaded rare cuts are filtering through to the economy.

On a personal note, it was a week of two trades, both 'risk on' and both short USD. A EUR USD on Tuesday, post US data. And a GBP USD post UK budget. It is pleasing there could have actually been another trade or two in there. And any trade could have been any type of risk on concoction.

I unfortunately missed Friday due to (once again) out of the blue uncle John duties. Not to get too personal but I have a nephew who has down syndrome and autism and I'm happy to shoulder some if his care when it's required.

I begin the new week feeling a little more emboldened than the previous couple of months. But it is prudent to be aware that anything can happen at any moment to flip the narrative in its head.

Let's see what December brings.

Results:

Trade 1: EUR USD +1.5

Trade 2: GBP USD +1.5

Total = +3%

Total since start of blog = +49.4% (risking 1% per trade).