Weekly review

This past week was dominated by the long dollar story. Particularly the early part of the week. The US 10year bond yield rose comfortabley above 4.5%, the S&P remained under pressure, the cause being the higher for longer narative. It's always a little tricky to have faith in price movement coming into quarter end and by Thursday there were a few moves that didn't quite make sense, it will be interesting to see how next week starts. Friday's PCE data from the US did indicate softer inflation but average income is still on the high side and I'll still be watching for dollar strength. Friday's poor GDP data from Canada gave the CAD a knock but it will be difficult to short the CAD whilst there is the threat of a  higher oil price. I'll also start the week by studying the current c.o.t data, in particular the GBP, it will be interesting to see if institutional money is still going into the pound following the dovish hold at the last meeting, plus softening inflation data. Over to Japan, and my preferred short of choice is still the JPY based on interest rate differential, although the threat of intervention is still a strong possibility. The Aussie and Kiwi again held up well, perhaps recovering from fundamentally oversold conditions, which may bode well for AUD or NZD longs Vs JPY in times of market calm.

On a personal note, it was a relatively quiet week with two trades as towards the end of the week I couldn't quite find enough conviction to trade due to being unsure about quarter end moves.

Results for week:

Trade 1:  GBP USD +1.5

Trade 2:  AUD USD  -1

Total  =  +0.5

Total since start of blog = +7.5%