Wednesday 4 June

It's been an eventful day in the markets.

Soft US data (ADP and SERVICE ISM) has sent the USD lower.

A BOC rate hold with a non committal, data dependent, wait and see approach could be deemed as a 'hawkish hold' especially given how 'bearish' the BOC was a few months ago. But recent data has started to shine a positive light on the Canadian economy.

I feel like a USD short 'in the moment news trade' was very viable today. But unfortunately, I'm a little late to the party.

And although overall sentiment was initially dented due to the soft data. The market has been in a positive mood recently as it comes to terms with the president's 'escalate to de-escalate strategy'. And I suspect today's data will ultimately be viewed as 'bad news is good news' as rate cuts will come into a fairly strong economy.

Therefore, I'm currently more inclined to wait for a reversal of CHF or JPY strength, with a mind for another 'risk on' trade.

It is mildly frustrating to feel like I've missed an opportunity today. But it's very important to make decisions you would stand by regardless of emotion.

Please feel free to email any thoughts or questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com