Wednesday 17 July.

The negative mood from yesterday has persisted. In fact, it's worse and I still can't pin why. The VIX has risen close to 15 for the first time in a while. Tech stocks are slumping. The JPY strength has continued (more intervention has been touted, or it could simply be traders bailing out of JPY shorts).

But fundamentally, the underlying theme is still 'soft landing'.

Throughout the year, you do get weeks where the 'price action' doesn't match your perception of how it should be. It is frustrating but there's nothing you can do about it... Except wait. Which for me means waiting for the VIX to drop, stocks to rise, a bit of 'fresh positivity' in the air and the 'risk on' currencies to strengthen again. I'll then be happy to take a 'risk on' trade again.

You may be thinking: why not just trade JPY long with the momentum?...that trade would have worked this week. But historically, every time the JPY has strengthend, it always reverts back to weakness thanks to interest rate fundamentals..... So, over a long period of time, it's prudent to only long the JPY when there is a serious 'risk off' event.

I'm sorry that again, there isn't a trade to report, but just as important as knowing when to trade, is knowing it's ok not to trade.

I'm other news, positive sentiment behind the GBP is growing as talk of a return to 1.40 Vs the USD has been touted. And the GBP remains a good 'risk on' long.

But for now, I'm content to sit and wait for the moment I can say... Even if this trade stops out, I'd still think I should have taken it.

Feel free to email any thoughts or questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com