Wednesday 16 April

Comments that china could be prepared to do a deal with the US ensures sentiment remains tentatively positive but with the feeling that a negative comment could turn the mood sour at any moment. Despite the mild positivity in the air NVIDIA negativity keeps the S&P suppressed.

The USD remains down in the dumps, a quick look at AUD USD shows six 'up days' in a row. But the chart is now at major daily resistance. It currently looks like the 'price' wants to break through, but with red flag AUD and NZD data due during the Asian session, it's prudent to stay patient.

Yesterday, it was nice to see actual data affect proceedings (soft ZEW data weakened the EUR and soft CPI weakened the CAD).

Today, soft CPI data dampens appetite for the GBP (despite positive UK retail sales data). A very non committal BOC makes the CAD difficult to trade. Chair powell and the ECB could offer opportunities. But 'good Friday', whilst potentially tradable, could dampen the markets appetite to commit before the weekend.

Currently, I'm mildly optimistic that 'risk on' or 'short USD' trades may be feasible. But I'm prepared to stay patient and pick my moments. Whilst being aware that 'earnings season' or 'tariff back and forth' could turn sentiment negative at any moment.

Feel free to offer thoughts or ask any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com