USD,JPY, CHF. Plus a little bit of psychology.
A fairly subdued start to the week kicked into life with some USD selling today.
It's worth noting how much difference a week can make. Following chair Powell's press conference this time last week, I started to wonder if there would be 0 FED rate cuts for the rest of the year. Fast forward a few days and NFP data blew anything chair Powell said out of the water. Now the market is talking (erratically) about emergency rate cuts. Personally, my opinion is that a cut in September is very likely and a further cut before year end is 50/50.
Ultimately, it doesn't matter what my 'medium term' view is. What matters is the here and now.
I'm still of the opinion USD strength can be sold. Plus I think JPY shorts are viable....and, thanks to tariff woes, the CHF is back on my radar as a short option.
Today at 11 am (UK time), post EUR retail sales data, EUR USD had upward momentum and I very nearly placed a EUR USD long trade. And actually, it was such a fine call that it was a rare occasion that no matter the decision I made (trade or not) I think I would have looked backed and still felt it was the correct decision in the moment. Ultimately, the fact it was only a few hours until US open swayed me to wait.
A few hours later the 'potential' profit target had been hit and I'm currently waiting for a pullback before I think a USD short trade is viable.
The psychology I'm trying to get across is ...trade or no trade, win or loss...it doesn't matter.
This week I've 'missed an opportunity' and placed a trade that stopped out but eventually the price went to the original profit target. The underlying theme being that 'my bias was correct' .
If your underlying bias is proven correct 'most of the time'. you will make money over a 12 month period. Regardless of each 'individual' decision you make.
I realise that's easier said than done. Please feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com
*The jury is still out but I'm not overly keen on the new Forex live 'upgrade' to Investing Live. Particularly since Adam Button seems to have 'moved upstairs'. Currently, I'm getting most of my information via 'free' emails from ING and ACTION FOREX. Plus scans of FX STREET and EFX DATA (free version). And listening via podcast (or live TV) to CNBC (halftime report / closing bell) and Bloomberg.