Tuesday 6 May.

Regarding yesterday's trade, the CHF did eventually weaken, but the USD turned out to be the wrong currency to long.

During today's European session, we had a 'risk off' feel of sorts, the S&P was down and the JPY was strong. As the US session got underway, momentum switched, the S&P rose and the JPY weakened.

I couldn't see any 'fresh headlines' that would have caused the moves.

The GBP had a particularly strong European session (in the face of the risk off tone). Again, I couldn't see a nailed on reason for the move, I put it down to EUR GBP 'liquidity' as the EUR was hit by political uncertainty. Although, later, there was news of a UK trade agreement with India.

All the while, we were told of an important US / Canada meeting. The meeting disappointed a little, Mr Trump confirmed he's not yet taking with china (last week he said he was?). We were told to expect a positive announcement about something soon. But it seems the market is growing tired of announcement promises. And it currently appears the market is once again losing faith in the administration.

Over the last couple of weeks, I have been emboldened by the positivity, particularly post MICROSOFT and META earnings and the BOJ meeting. And I did say any 'risk off' trades would have to be a strong catalyst. But currently, I feel I have more confidence in risk off and I would take a 'standard' risk off trade. But whichever direction I'm trading in, I need to see an explainable 'fresh cause'.

It's a tricky time, please email any thoughts or questions, you might have a different view to me: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com