Tuesday 29 October: US 10YEAR to 4.6?

The USD remains in the driver seat, despite 'softish' jolts data. The US 10year yield continues above 4.3. I have read 4.6 will be the next serious test of resistance.

Whilst EUR AUD is going up, I'm staying out of EUR shorts. And the GBP remains resilient. But I currently consider any of the other currencies shortable VS the USD.

USD CAD is a clear favourite due to the falling oil price and dovish BOC.

It's also difficult to ignore AUD & NZD weakness at the moment.

The JPY should be shortable considering the uncertain election result is deemed to be JPY dovish. The risk to any yen short is the ever present possibility of intervention.

And the CHF 'should' remain weaker than the USD as the SNB remains the most dovish central bank.

I continue to hold a preference for a 'cluster' of 1hr swings to place a stop loss behind. Which is an example of how the market ebbs and flows, earlier in the year, there were a lot of 'catalyst' opportunities with stop losses placed using much smaller time frames. But there hasn't been any big catalyst moves for a while now.

At some point that will likely change. And at some point, something will knock the USD strength. But until it does, I'm content to stay patient and wait for long USD opportunities with a stop loss behind that 'cluster of 1hr swings'.

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com