Tuesday 19 November: Walmart saves the day.

The European session began with a wobble. A risk which has lay 'dormant' for a long time suddenly started to concern the market with the words 'nuclear weapons' being used in connection to Ukraine war. Causing stocks and bond yields to roll over in a 'classic risk off' move. It was interesting the CHF was the 'safe haven' to benefit the most.

By the early US session, calmness was restored thanks to WALMART reporting better than expected earnings with positive forward guidance and the company described as the 'heartbeat of the economy' is doing just fine. The S&P reversed it's decline and AUD JPY broke out of recent resistance.

The other 'good news of the day was from a very little paid attention to piece of US data. US STATE PAYROLL. Something I've never known to move the market. But the significance of today's data shows the recent hurricane in the US wasn't solely to blame for last month's poor NFP number. This has been construed as 'bad news is good news' as it appears the FED are still likely to cut in December. Although it takes the shine of USD strength, for now, the dollar still remains on my 'to long list'.

As things stand, barring fresh Ukraine war concerns, I'm very close to considering a 'risk on' trade. I'd just like to see a couple more 1hr 'up swings' on AUD JPY in particular before feeling confident.

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