Thursday 4 July.

The 'post Powell speech' positivity has continued, helped by Wednesday's generally 'soft landing' US data. The S&P 500 continues to make all time highs and for me, 'risk on' trades are still very viable. But considering today is 'independence day' (I hope my American friends are enjoying the day) I wouldn't be surprised to see quiet trading, especially as it's NFP tomorrow.

In other news, soft CPI from Switzerland keeps the CHF as a potential short (And helps contribute to the generally positive environment)

Lots of election news simmering in the background. In the US, the market's focus will be who controls the house, recent polls suggest it will be the republican party. And whilst that remains the case, US bond yields will likely remain supported. But with possible talk of Biden stepping out of the race, things could get interesting.

In the UK, the election outcome has pretty much been a done deal since day one and the GBP has been unmoved throughout the whole process.

In Europe, expected volitility hasn't happend as Macrons polling improves, but I suspect the EUR is only a headline away from a spike in either direction.

All in all, I wouldn't blame anyone for being in a 'risk on' trade today. But personally I'm going to sit on the sidelines and hope for a 'soft landing' NFP number to continue the positivity.

Feel free to email any thoughts or questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com