Friday 28 June.

Thursday's docket of mixed data releases, was for me, mildly USD supportive. But has left the market 'as you were', unsure whether to focus on a 'soft landing' or be concerned about interest rates being held higher for longer and causing too big a slowdown.

The S&P continues to hold steady around all time highs but US bonds are rising slightly, which confirms the mixed picture. The good news is the VIX remains low.

In other news, USD JPY continues it's climb, oblivious to BOJ 'verbal jawboning'. The first US presidential debate hasn't affected the market. And surprisingly 'dovish' comments from RBA board member Hauser have knocked AUD sentiment a little.

All in all today's 'red flag' core PCE remains a potentially market moving event, which could set the tone for the coming week. The outcome could be fairly binary, a lower (soft) number will likely reignite the 'soft landing' trade. And a higher (hot) number could see concern creep in as the market ponders the possibility of re-accelerating inflation.

Currently, my inclination is to place 'pre event anticipation' buy / sell stop orders covering the possibility of either outcome.

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com