Thursday 17 October

The AUD regains composure following excellent jobs data. Bringing the potential of AUD Vs NZD long back into play. Also meaning any thoughts of shorting the AUD Vs the USD were fleeting.

Speaking of the USD, it remains strong and longable, especially after today's jobless claims data and retail sales. And the positive data appears to have jolted positivity, with the S&P making new highs, the VIX back below 20 and the JPY weakening.

Today's other news was the expected rate cut from the ECB, along with fairly dovish commentary. The EUR has weakened on the news and certainly remains on the 'to short list'. An interesting the moment short Euro catalyst trade would have been a very valid trade at the time, the problem with an event happening in the direction a currency was already heading, is that it can mean that currency can look 'oversold'. And EUR USD in particular looks stretched on the 4hr chart.

Currently, my preference is to wait for 1hr swings before feeling confident in a trade, whether that's a USD long, or a 'risk on' long depends on the mood of the market at the time.

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com