Thursday 15 February.

During the Asian session, soft GDP data from Japan backs up possibility of the BOJ not hiking rates for a long time (if at all) but strangely, the JPY strengthened in what I can only imagine to be profit taking as traders are wary of intervention talk whilst USD JPY is above 150.

During the European session, the UK also reported soft GDP, and similar to yesterday's lower CPI data, brings with it talk of earlier cuts from the BOE. But also similar to yesterday, I'm sceptical of shorting the pound whilst it's hovering above daily support on the GBP USD chart.

Today's US session's main event is retail sales. With the month on month number forecast to come down. But there is an age old saying... Never underestimate the American consumer. And my preference would be to see an above forecast number, which would back up the current fundementals of: strong economy, higher rates for longer. And likely create a USD long opportunity.

But, on a low number, I would be prepared to short the USD. Given the recent talk that the bumper CPI number was an outlier, and the disinflation process is still underway.

As each day passes, it's a day closer to the FED cutting rates. Which will ultimately (most likely) see the USD end the year lower than it is today.

So today, I will be led by the retail sales number and corresponding price action and narrative.

Please feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com