The week ahead

Monday may be a quiet day due to presidents day. That's not to say don't trade. But with the S&P closed it will be difficult to truly gauge the risk environment, plus liquidity will be low during the US session, so any trades may take a while to complete.

Although interest rate expectations have taken a back seat lately, I'll be curiously watching the RBA decision on Tuesday. The market and recent inflation data suggest a rate cut. If there's going to be a surprise, it could be that the RBA hold rates.

The UK has a slew of data releases, the BOE has recently turned a little more dovish and any negative data could create GBP short opportunities.

There is also has an interest rate meeting from NZD and I'm curious to see the current thoughts of the RBNZ.

Inflation data from Canada and Japan could be important, a lower reading from Canada could keep the CAD subdued and vice versa, momentum is growing for JPY hikes, so a higher than expected number could confirm the recent narrative of a potentially stronger JPY.

US PMI data and the FED minutes are also due. We already know the FED are maintaining the 'higher for longer narrative' but any soft data could ensure the market put pressure on the FED to cut rates quicker.

Of course, 'tariff talk' or 'Ukraine war talk' could affect the market at any moment.

Everything I've just said could be rendered useless by an event no one could forsee. But for now, I'll begin the new week with an eye for 'risk on' opportunities with a stop loss behind 'a cluster' of '1hr support'. Also keeping an eye on potential 'immediate aftermath' opportunities, such as GBP data, US PMI data and the RBA rate decision.

Please feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com