The week ahead.

It's a quiet data docket today as most of the developed world is on 'bank holiday'. The Forex market is open, and often, you do find if there is a prevailing trend, the currencies often grind in the direction of that trend. Although there is nothing wrong with placing a trade on bank holidays, I generally give it a miss and wait for the volatility to kick back in.

Which could start during Tuesday's Asian session, when Australia reports RETAIL SALES, my preference would be for a positive number to re-ignite AUD strength.

This week we also have CPI from Europe, which could cement a rate cut from the ECB next week.

From the US, we have GDP and PCE, which will either see a continuation of the 'higher for longer narrative' ...or, hopefully, re-ignite the 'soft landing narrative'.

Friday in particular could be an interesting day, with US PCE and CAD GDP released at the same time.

All in all, my base case remains, which is short JPY or CHF 'interest rate differential' trades (possibly short CAD).

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com