Service ISM below expectations.

Just when it appeared that even June was going to be too soon for a US rate cut ( today's ADP employment figures adding to that narrative). along came US service ISM (below expectations) and weakened the USD considerably.

The recent strong data from the US means that I'm not ready to jump on USD shorts yet. But today's data has created a 'risk on' mood. (Yields down, stocks up). And...finally... The JPY is weakening as you would expect in a 'risk on' environment.

I think a 'risk on' short JPY trade is very viable. Really, it would have been ideal to enter straight after the news as an 'in the moment' trade. But unfortunately, I missed that opportunity. So now, I have a choice, either wait for a 15 min swing on AUD JPY and trade it as a 'risk on catalyst' or wait for a 1hr swing and trade it as a standard 'risk on' trade.

Personally, I'm going to air on the conservative side and wait for the confidence of a 1hr swing. The risk to that decision is a missed opportunity so I wouldn't blame anyone for trading this momentum as a catalyst on a 15 min chart.

In fact, my hope is that unlike me, you caught the news and are already in a 'risk on' trade.

Feel free to ask any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com