Retail sales in focus.

With Wednesday's US CPI data showing disinflation is still steady, there is now a case to say the market doesn't consider inflation data as the main focus. The strength of the economy is now arguably the important factor. And today's US RETAIL data combined with Walmart earnings could determine the markets mood into the weekend and next week.

As hoped, the 'risk currencies' have recovered following the post CPI drop, helped by positive AUD employment data. And AUD NZD longs look an attractive option as the RBA remains hawkish and the RBNZ turn more dovish.

With AUD JPY in particular currently at 4hr resistance, it's hard to envision a breakout before the retail data and Walmart earnings are reported. Therefore my current decision is to wait for the release. If they are positive and the VIX remains low, 'risk on' trades could be viable until the next important data.

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com