RBNZ disappoints NZD bulls.

A 'dovish hold' from the RBNZ has weakened the NZD as earlier rate cuts are being priced in. And created a very nice 'in the moment' NZD short trade.

The question now is whether NZD short is still a viable trade. And at the moment, my gut instinct is to wait.

over the long term I would expect the NZD to remain one of the stronger currencies, although thoughts about the RBNZ future policy had been very hawkish and today's announcement is a big disparity. Which opens the door for a bit more NZD weakness. Particularly Vs the AUD. And I wouldn't blame anyone for being in an AUD NZD 'catalyst' trade.

But arriving at the charts after the fact. NZD USD is approaching daily support. Plus there could be quiet trading ahead of US CPI. My instinct is to sit this one out, which is unfortunate as it certainly was an opportunity a few hours ago. But as traders we can only make what we believe to be the best decision in the moment. And I suspect the AUD NZD chart is a little stretched.

If that means I look at the charts later and it looks like I should have traded.... I'm ok with that.

Feel free to email any thoughts or questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com