Post FOMC reaction.

The FED has held interest rates (as expected) and at the press conference (which I watched) Mr Powell was his usual measured self, not giving an awful lot away.

Economy is still in good shape. Inflation is still too high, need to have greater confidence in the data before the first cut. Unable to give a timeline for the first cut. All in all, it's a very similar message to the last meeting. And if you wanted to look hard enough you could make a case for it being a dovish or a hawkish message.

The market has initially taken it as dovish (dollar negative) I think due to the fact the predicted end of year rate hasn't changed, plus Mr Powell said the FED wasn't overly concerned about the higher than forecast CPI data from the last two months. Plus the 'dot plot' of three cuts this year remains the same.

I therefore think a 'risk on' trade is very viable, either short USD or short JPY. Its just a case of deciding if you're comfortable with a stop loss behind a 1hr swing as a standard trade, or a 15min swing as a catalyst trade.

*Side note.. the commodity currencies are performing very well but upcoming GDP data from NZD would stop me trading the kiwi until after the data is released.