The John Elfed Forex Blog

Post ISM thoughts.

Last month, a soft ISM reading was the first domino of the 'panic selling'. Is the same about to happen following today's softer than forecast number? The initial reaction suggests maybe. But with AUD JPY currently approaching 4hr (and daily) support. Any thoughts of a '

Tuesday 3 September

Yesterday's JPY weakness has completely reversed, with a much larger pullback than I for one expected. Concerns about china, disappointing AUD data and a drop in the price of iron ore have contributed to what I would say is 'very mild' negative sentiment. In the grand

Monday 2 September.

Due to labour day it's been relatively quiet day in the market. With the exception of JPY weakness. It's a welcome site to see the yen breaking above 4hr resistance (in particular AUD JPY). Having just looked at the charts, I'm in the age

Weekly review.

There isn't an awful lot to say about the week starting Monday 26 August as the 'status quo' remains. The market is comfortable with falling inflation and US data, the 'risk on soft landing narrative' remains. Helped by decent NVIDIA earnings and future guidance,

Friday 30 August

Thursday's jobless claims and GDP data show a still strong US economy. Adding to the 'risk on soft landing narrative'. The S&P is up, the VIX is down, the overall mood certainly lends itself to a 'risk on' trade. The USD initially

Live trade

NVIDEA earnings where positive with positive future guidance. The price sold off after hours, but I see that as 'sell the fact' and don't expect it to last. And with the S&P futures already recovering, c ombined with a dovish sounding Bostic. I think

Waiting for NVIDIA.

Not much has changed since yesterday, the underlying 'risk on narrative' remains. But it appears 'The market', particularly the S&P 500 doesn't want to commit before NVIDIA earnings, NVIDIA is arguably the most important company in the world at the moment. And

Tuesday 27 August.

The soft landing, risk on sentiment remains in the currency space. And both the JPY and USD are feasibly short candidates, which one, depends on the USD JPY chart in the moment. With the market seemingly looking past inflation, potential headwinds to the positive sentiment are US jobless claims data,

Live trade.

With the 'risk environment' stable, the soft landing narrative continues. Even considering a spike in oil due to Libya halting production. USD JPY is currently recovering, therefore I've chosen the JPY as the short for a standard 'risk on' AUD JPY long. Email photo

Weekly review.

Week starting Monday 19 August was all about the USD. The dollar spent most of the week on the back foot in anticipation of chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, where it was widely anticipated an imminent US rate cut would be confirmed. The USD weakness did briefly pause

Waiting for Powell.

Thursday's PMI data showed positivity for the US economy. And gave a bout of strength to the USD, which could have been the market realising three US rate cuts won't be necessary this year. Or it could simply have been an excuse to take profits from

Thursday 22 August.

Subdued USD sentiment continues ahead of Jackson hole as the market prepares for the beginning of a FED easing cycle. At the start of the year it was widely touted the USD would end up weaker. It currently appears the weakening has begun. But of course, chair Powell could disappoint

Trade photo.

It's a 'risk on' trade, based on the market preparing for US rate cuts. Asking for a small pullback, with a stop loss behind a 4hr swing. If it triggers, it could be a trade that takes a while to complete. The risk to the trade

Live trade.

I've decided to trade the weak USD momentum with a limit order asking for a small pullback Vs the AUD. I've chosen the AUD as the long simply because I feel it's the currency that has the most going for it at the moment.

Tuesday 20 August.

I'm now back on home soil following 24 hours travelling door to door. And after a wonderful time away, I've arrived home to see the risk environment is still tentatively positive, with the USD weak in particular. It appears in anticipation of chair Powell's

Weekly review.

Week starting Monday 12 August was a fairly serene week, Us data, namely, RETAIL SALES, CPI and JOBLESS CLAIMS all suggesting a 'soft landing' is still on the cards. And the 'risk recovery' continued following the recent 'crash landing panic'. Which is a good

Trade photo.

It's a standard 'risk on trade' with a 20 pip stop loss and a 30 pip profit target. I've gone for 1.5:1 risk reward because it's so early in the trading day. The stop loss is behind two 1hr swings

Live trade.

Following a pullback I was waiting for on the AUD CHF 1hr chart. I've chosen the CHF to short simply because I perceive the SNB as the most dovish central bank at the moment. Email photo to follow:

Post retail sales thoughts.

Today's US retail sales data has boosted risk sentiment. Having been out when the data was released, I've unfortunately missed a clear in the moment catalyst, or even a pre event anticipation trade. And I now find myself in the predicament that whilst a trade looks

Retail sales in focus.

With Wednesday's US CPI data showing disinflation is still steady, there is now a case to say the market doesn't consider inflation data as the main focus. The strength of the economy is now arguably the important factor. And today's US RETAIL data combined

Soft CPI.

US CPI has come down slightly as hoped. But a 'sell the fact' scenario sent the anticipation AUD USD trade straight to the stop loss. And is a good example of why it's important to immediately delete the second order when placing anticipation trades. I can&

CPI anticipation orders.

Today's US CPI could be a market moving event. A number suggesting disinflation is on track should reinforce the risk on environment. And a number higher than expected could send the market back into 'hard landing fears'. I think it's worth pre event anticipation

Trade photo

It's a 20 pip stop loss with a 30 pip profit target. The risk to the trade is the fact it's very early in Tuesday trading and anything could happen when Europe and the US markets open. I will close the trade before US CPI on

Live trade.

Having read the SNB are actively seeking to weaken the CHF and considering the 'risk environment' is still tentatively positive. I've placed an AUD CHF long trade following a pullback to previous support. Email photo to follow:

Monday 12 August

Following a fascinating weekend at an elephant nature reserve, I've arrived at the charts today to see that with no data releases of note, the 'risk recovery' tentatively continues. And short JPY or CHF trades appear inviting when a stop loss can be placed behind a