The John Elfed Forex Blog

Falling oil and tariffs hit the CAD

Weekly review

The week starting Monday 24 February began with mild positivity during the European session. And it looked like the previous Friday's 'sell off' was a mere blip. But by the time the US session got underway, any positivity evaporated. And throughout the remainder of the week,

CORE PCE on the agenda.

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Tuesday 25 February: Negativity in the air.

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Weekly review

Writing a review for the week starting Monday 17 February is a bit like trying to put a 1000 piece jigsaw puzzle together... here is my attempt. The week began in a mildly positive fashion, with the S&P hovering near all time highs, the VIX remaining below 16

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Mid-week thoughts.

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The week ahead

Monday may be a quiet day due to presidents day. That's not to say don't trade. But with the S&P closed it will be difficult to truly gauge the risk environment, plus liquidity will be low during the US session, so any trades may

Understanding Forex correlations.

A big part of my trading strategy is understanding the correlations currencies have with the risk environment and each other. Very often, the overall ‘risk environment’ dominates market movement. And the mood is classed as either ‘risk on’ (positive) ‘risk off’ (negative)... or neutral. When sentiment is strong in a

Weekly review

The week starting Monday 10 February began with a 'USD strength opening gap' and my initial thought was 'here we go again', more tariff chaos. But the 'gap' filled and the chaos didn't materialise. Although the market was tentatively waiting for news,

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Wednesday 12 February: psychology lesson / unpacking the day.

Tuesday 11 February. Tentatively risk on

Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 3 February began with a flurry of tariff news, which caused 'risk off' sentiment. Similar to the previous Monday's sell-off caused by the 'deepseek' news, the negativity didn't last too long. Although it was a bumpy ride with

Friday 7 February

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