The John Elfed Forex Blog

Trade photo

This is the 4hr chart, I've set a limit order asking for a small pull back. The stop loss is behind a cluster of 1hr support. The profit target is asking for a new 'recent' high, which is a risk. Similar to last week's

Live trade: limit order

Following 'hawkish' comments from the FED's Daly. I've set a limit order for a small pullback on USD CHF email photo to follow:

Monday 14 October.

It is a nice sight to see the VIX dropping below 20 and the CHF and JPY weak today. Although the fact it's a partial holiday in the US means too much credence can't be put on the moves. Especially as there are fresh reports of

Weekly review.

I found it difficult to form a conviction in the direction of the currencies during the week starting Monday 7 October. Given the previous Friday's positive NFP number, I was 'expecting' a generally risk on environment. But Chinese markets returned from a week long holiday with

Trade closed manually

I have closed today's USD CHF trade to avoid weekend risk. For a small loss of -0.3. Ending a week where the market didn't quite align with my views, I will attempt to dissect this week's 'price action' in the weekly

Trade photo

It's another long USD trade, based on the re-pricing of FED rate expectations. I've chosen the CHF to short as the SNB remains the most dovish central bank. It's a 20 pip stop loss, with. 20 pip profit target for a Friday 1:1

Live trade.

In a repeat of the earlier trade week, I've entered USD CHF long. As the USD weakness post JOBLESS CLAIMS appears to be over. Email photo to follow:

Jobless claims overshadows CPI.

Not so long ago, hotter than forecast US CPI would have sent USD JPY higher, along with IS yields. But today, whilst yields are going up, it appears higher than forecast JOBLESS CLAIMS data has stunted the dollar. And left us in limbo with all assets a little out of

Wednesday 9 October: The state of play.

So far, it's been a bit of a strange week. Nothing has fundamentally changed to alter the 'soft landing' view. But a combination of disappointment over further Chinese stimulus, underlying middle east concerns and the US 10year bond yield rising above 4% has caused an underlying

Trade photo

It's essentially a 'long USD' trade based on continually positive US data causing FED rate cut bets to be unwound. And I believe the CHF to be 'overbought'. It certainly isn't a text book trade though. And the high VIX is a

Live trade

This is by no means a 'text book' trade. But I've entered a USD CHF long. It's a chart I've been eyeing up since Friday's NFP release. Email photo to follow:

Monday 7 October: stubborn VIX.

As far as I can tell, nothing has fundamentally happened to alter my preference for 'short JPY or CHF' trades. But currently those currencies are too strong to short, as the VIX pokes it's head above 20. It could be the US 10year yield rising above

Weekly review

The week starting Monday 30 September was another 'by and large' positive week. Although the positivity was briefly paused on Tuesday due to escalating middle east fears. Which, unfortunately don't appear to be going away anytime soon and will be a constant underlying risk to any

Huge NFP beat.

Today's NFP data has surprised across the board, an extra 100,000 jobs added above forecast. Plus a lower unemployment rate than forecast, as US data once again confirms a solid economy and the likelihood of a 'soft landing'. All in all, the data has been

Trade photo

It's a 40 pip stop loss, 60 pip profit target. Soft landing trade. Not long ago, the market wouldn't have liked the high service ISM data, but at the moment positive data is good news. And a soft landing in the US is still forecast. For

Live trade.

AUD JPY long, 'risk on, soft landing trade' I've stuck with the AUD based on I believe the AUD has the strongest fundamentals. But there is a case to make to trade any of the other currencies long vs the JPY (or CHF) Photo to follow:

Thursday 3 October: GBP under pressure

The pound has weakened due to a 'dovish turn' by the BOE, potentially putting the GBP on the 'to short list'. Although, I would still expect the GBP to recover Vs JPY, therefore my preference remains for 'risk on' short JPY trades. Especially considering

Psychology lesson.

Going back to Friday's JPY strength 'post election result'. I just wanted to highlight an aspect of psychology. I wasn't in a 'short JPY' trade when the news hit. But I very easily could have been. And it would have stopped out.

Middle east concerns.

A little bit of negativity has crept into the market. Today's US ISM data shows still sluggish manufacturing. And concerns over events in the middle east is starting to have an effect. The VIX is up to 19, the S&P is under pressure and the US

Tuesday 1 October

The USD ship has steadied post Powell speech as the market starts to price in two extra cuts this year rather than three. But overall market sentiment remains positive. Sentiment for the EUR remains tentative as Ms laggard reiterates caution regarding a slowing economy. Today's CPI data will

Trade photo.

It's another 'risk on' trade. As the positive sentiment surrounding china continues. This time with a 50 pip stop loss and 75 pip profit target. It currently appears Friday's JPY strength is now over. But if USD JPY reverses, that's a risk

Live trade.

The 'status quo' remains. Which means I'm still looking for 'risk on' trades. The JPY is starting to weaken against everything including the USD. I've therefore entered AUD JPY long. Email photo to follow:

Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 23 September was a calm week. The risk environment remained positive as the soft landing narrative continued, US GDP, JOBLESS CLAIMS and core PCE all signaling a healthy economy with the disinflation process in tact. Adding to the positivity was china's attempts to stimulate

Friday 27 September: JPY strength

A surprise election result in Japan caused a surge of JPY strength, as the incoming prime minister leans more hawkish than the market was expecting. Which potentially puts us back to square one regarding the yen, just when it appeared 'short JPY' would be the go to trade

Thursday 26 September.

US GDP and jobless claims data shows a healthy US economy and the risk environment remains positive. Chair Powell's speech passed by without monetary policy comments and the market continues to focus on the soft landing narrative and China's attempts to stimulate it's economy.