The John Elfed Forex Blog

A big thank you!

Well over one year has passed since I started this blog. And I just wanted to say a very big thank you to everyone for having the confidence in me to give this a try. I very much enjoy documenting my thoughts and I sincerely hope you are taking something

Reminder: I'm waiting until after the election.

Just to confirm I'll be waiting until after the US election before forming a fresh opinion on the market. I'll continue reading articles to see if I can get an inkling for potential moves on certain outcomes. And I'll pay attention to the RBA

Weekly review.

Week starting Monday 28 October: If you wrote down a scenario: Company earnings 'by and large' positive, disinflation still on track (particularly in Switzerland) 'soft' US GDP and NFP data. I would say more often than not, it would have been a week of 'risk

The ebb and flow of the market: It's important to read everyday.

Once again, it was difficult a week to form a conviction in the direction of the currencies. I don't think (in 9 years of trading) I've ever known such an environment whereby there were so many market moving narratives at one time. I don't

Thursday 31 October: A lot of moving parts.

I can't recall many moments when there has been so many potential market moving events happening in such a short space of time. Big tech earnings, US data, BOJ uncertainty, rising yields, GBP budget, EUR rebound, china uncertainty, NFP, US election. That's just off the top

Wednesday 30 October.

Higher than expected inflation in Europe, combined with better than forecast GDP data keeps the 'EUR bounce' going. And does make the EUR a tempting long as any thoughts of a further 0.5bp rate cut in December are trimmed to 0.25bp. The GBP initially sold off

Tuesday 29 October: US 10YEAR to 4.6?

The USD remains in the driver seat, despite 'softish' jolts data. The US 10year yield continues above 4.3. I have read 4.6 will be the next serious test of resistance. Whilst EUR AUD is going up, I'm staying out of EUR shorts. And the

Trade photo

Nothing has altered my view, the USD is still the most obvious long in town. Vs either a commodity currency, the JPY or CHF. I've entered a 'support and resistance' USD CHF long based on the fact I can't envision the USD falling below

Live trade

I've entered USD CHF long 'support and resistance' trade. Photo to follow:

Weekly review

The week starting Monday 21 October was another week I found difficult to form a concrete conviction in the direction of the currencies, all in all it was a fairly subdued currency space. As the market waits for 'bigger fish to fry' over the next couple of weeks.

Trade photo

It's a 20 pip stop loss, with 30 pip profit target. 'Support and resistance' trade. Backed up by continually positive US data, added to by today's jobless claims data. Plus the fact the CAD strength post rate cut is waining at 4hr support. The

Live trade

I have entered USD CAD long. It is essentially a 'support and resistance trade. Based on the CAD's post BOC rate cut strength waning at 4hr support. Email photo to follow:

Thursday 24 October: struggling for conviction.

I'm currently finding it difficult to have faith in the near term direction of all the currencies. The inevitable 'verbal intervention' from the BOJ has halted the rise of USD JPY. And although I don't expect yen strengthen to last, it's a

Wednesday 23 October

USD strength and JPY weakness are the stand out themes so far this week as It appears the carry trade is back in fashion. A reluctance from the BOJ to 'jawbone' has sent USD JPY to 152. My apprehension to trade the JPY earlier in the week circa

Finding your own bar to place a trade.

How do you know the correct time to enter the market? For me, it's a 'feeling of 'inner peace'. Which I can only get, first of all by understanding the fundamental cause of any market moves in the first place. Then having the confidence the

USD domination

Today's AUD CAD trade stopped out very quickly, likely due to the CAD strengthening alongside the USD. AUD CAD long isn't a trade I regret, but I am thinking to myself I should have gone EUR USD short, which was another trade I was contemplating at

Trade photo

It's a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target. The stop loss is behind two 1hr swings. The VIX is dropping and US yields are up, in what has been described as 'rising because the world is in a good place'. Which bodes well

Live trade

I've entered AUD CAD long 'relative fundamental' trade. based on the still hawkish RBA Vs the BOC likely under pressure to remain dovish. Photo to follow:

Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 14 October was another week where it was difficult to have confidence in anything other than USD long trades. Due to US data remaining robust (namely retail sales and jobless claims) combined with the on-going 'unwinding' of FED rate cut expectations. It was also

Forming your own opinion 'in the moment'

This blog was never intended to be a signals service, my 'hope' is for you to study my decisions, the reason for those decisions. And along the way you'll pick up the correlations, fundamentals, market narrative, the potential risks of any trade taken and ultimately feel

Friday 18 October

I must apologise for the lack of narrative today....I've had internet and server issues. And I haven't been able to access my charts all day. It's an ongoing problem I hope to have fixed over the weekend. From limited knowledge, it appears the

Thursday 17 October

The AUD regains composure following excellent jobs data. Bringing the potential of AUD Vs NZD long back into play. Also meaning any thoughts of shorting the AUD Vs the USD were fleeting. Speaking of the USD, it remains strong and longable, especially after today's jobless claims data and

Wednesday 16 October: only trade in town

Many, many people (myself included) predicted the USD would end the year lower than it began. That prediction now looks in jeopardy. Currently 'long USD' is the only trade in town, as goeopolitical uncertainty collides with a strong US economy and an 'unwinding' off FED rate

Trade photo

This is the 4hr chart, I've set a limit order asking for a small pull back. The stop loss is behind a cluster of 1hr support. The profit target is asking for a new 'recent' high, which is a risk. Similar to last week's

Live trade: limit order

Following 'hawkish' comments from the FED's Daly. I've set a limit order for a small pullback on USD CHF email photo to follow: