The John Elfed Forex Blog

Thursday 27 July 19:00 UK time

In recent months it's become the norm to expect the unexpected from the BOJ. Today is a prime example. Last week governor Ueda was adamant that policy was fine and there was no need to adjust anything. Today there has been a leak suggesting yield curve control will

Thursday 27 July 16:50 UK time.

Wednesday 26 July 21:25

Wednesday 26 July 10:15 UK time

During the Asian session AUD CPI came in lower than expected, but stubbornly high inflation in the service sector will keep the pressure on the RBA to keep interest rates high. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported decent earnings, which is good news but the market may have wanted a little

Tuesday 25 July 09:20 UK time

China bolstered the yuan overnight by selling US dollars and promised stimulus to boost the economy, this has weakened the USD. All eyes now turn to Microsoft and Alphabet earnings this evening, it's a high bar to reach to keep the AI bubble going. Between earnings and the

Monday 24 July 10:40 UK time

Monday 24 July 08:50 UK time

A very busy week ahead with central bank meetings from the US, Europe and Japan. A slew of PMI releases, with production already slowed and the service service sector starting to roll over, will the data give a continuation to the soft landing possibility? This week also has the start

Weekly review

This last week saw a recovery for the USD, helped by a resilient economy and robust jobs market. Which has given rise to talk of potentially more rate hikes from the fed. Plus inflation rolling over in other regions (Britain in particular) took the focus away from US disinflation. Disappointing

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Friday 21 July 08:30 UK time

Thursday 20 July 16:00

Today's trade completed at hit profit. Jobless claims data shows US employment is robust and may well have the market reconsidering how many more hikes the fed will do. The GBP is still weak following yesterday's inflation data, which has the market thinking less hikes are

Thursday 20 July 05:00 UK time

Positive developments out of China and a strong Australian jobs report have given a boost to the AUD. Inflation data from Japan will be closely watched tonight, will the JPY remain shortable?

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Wednesday 19 July 12:30

Wednesday 19 July 07:30

For the first time in a long time, inflation in the UK had been reported softer than expected. This is good news for the residents of the UK. But in terms of the currency, it appears that good news is bad news. The pound is sinking across the board as

Monday 17 July 09:50

Weekly review

Following last Friday's NFP, the dollar started the week softly, I tried to take advantage of this with a EUR USD long trade on monday in anticipation the USD would remain weak in the lead up to CPI. Which was expected to be lower than forecast, in part

Thursday 13 july 09:20

Following yesterday's soft CPI print, the USD has continued to weaken. Are the fed done raising rates? The market is still pricing in one more hike at the next meeting, but it doesn't think there will be anymore after that. Following the reversal of the USD

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Wednesday 12 July 10:45

Tuesday 11 July 10:10

With the market seeming to be expecting a soft CPI print tomorrow, the USD has continued to weaken. In other news, The UK reported better than expected wage growth this morning (UK time) which has helped the GBP to remain strong, although there could be troubling times ahead for the

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Monday 10 July 16:50

Weekly review

Following last Friday's PCE data, I started the week wondering if the USD was shortable. The week started slowly with the US markets closed for independence day. Things livened up on Wednesday evening UK time thanks to the release of the fomc minutes, which came across as hawkish

Friday 7 July 10:00

This weeks fomc meeting minutes, plus ADP and ISM DATA suggest USD strength. But the dollar has considerably weakened overnight. is this profit taking before today's NFP release? Or is the market telling the fed that it doesn't believe two more rate-hikes are coming this year?

Thursday 6 July 15:30

Following yesterday's hawkish fomc minutes, all the data today (ADP & ISM services) points to higher rates for longer in the US and the US dollar is reacting accordingly. If any trade I take today is still running when NFP is due to be released, I will close

Wednesday 5 July 15:15

The US market opens up with uncertainty, most likely awaiting the fomc minutes due to be released at 19:00 UK time. Will the minutes give the market a clear direction? Or will the the fact that NFP is due to be released on Friday keep trading subdued until then?

Tuesday 4 July 09:30

The Australian central Bank dissapointed Aussie bulls this morning by holding the interest rate. But I don't think it's created a short AUD opportunity because the terminal rate has remained the same. Japanese intervention talk is getting louder and with a quiet data agenda in Europe

Sunday 2 July

Last week it was difficult to have faith in the direction of the currencies. The EUR was the standout performer due to the still hawkish central bank. Moving forward, will Friday's PCE data set the tone for the USD this coming week? All up-coming data will be scrutinised