Wednesday 19 July 07:30 For the first time in a long time, inflation in the UK had been reported softer than expected. This is good news for the residents of the UK. But in terms of the currency, it appears that good news is bad news. The pound is sinking across the board as
Weekly review Following last Friday's NFP, the dollar started the week softly, I tried to take advantage of this with a EUR USD long trade on monday in anticipation the USD would remain weak in the lead up to CPI. Which was expected to be lower than forecast, in part
Thursday 13 july 09:20 Following yesterday's soft CPI print, the USD has continued to weaken. Are the fed done raising rates? The market is still pricing in one more hike at the next meeting, but it doesn't think there will be anymore after that. Following the reversal of the USD
Tuesday 11 July 10:10 With the market seeming to be expecting a soft CPI print tomorrow, the USD has continued to weaken. In other news, The UK reported better than expected wage growth this morning (UK time) which has helped the GBP to remain strong, although there could be troubling times ahead for the
Weekly review Following last Friday's PCE data, I started the week wondering if the USD was shortable. The week started slowly with the US markets closed for independence day. Things livened up on Wednesday evening UK time thanks to the release of the fomc minutes, which came across as hawkish
Friday 7 July 10:00 This weeks fomc meeting minutes, plus ADP and ISM DATA suggest USD strength. But the dollar has considerably weakened overnight. is this profit taking before today's NFP release? Or is the market telling the fed that it doesn't believe two more rate-hikes are coming this year?
Thursday 6 July 15:30 Following yesterday's hawkish fomc minutes, all the data today (ADP & ISM services) points to higher rates for longer in the US and the US dollar is reacting accordingly. If any trade I take today is still running when NFP is due to be released, I will close
Wednesday 5 July 15:15 The US market opens up with uncertainty, most likely awaiting the fomc minutes due to be released at 19:00 UK time. Will the minutes give the market a clear direction? Or will the the fact that NFP is due to be released on Friday keep trading subdued until then?
Tuesday 4 July 09:30 The Australian central Bank dissapointed Aussie bulls this morning by holding the interest rate. But I don't think it's created a short AUD opportunity because the terminal rate has remained the same. Japanese intervention talk is getting louder and with a quiet data agenda in Europe
Sunday 2 July Last week it was difficult to have faith in the direction of the currencies. The EUR was the standout performer due to the still hawkish central bank. Moving forward, will Friday's PCE data set the tone for the USD this coming week? All up-coming data will be scrutinised
Friday 30 June 14:10 PCE data from the US comes out softer than forecast, moving forward this is hopefully a good sign for the world and may create USD short opportunities. This risk this afternoon would be quarter end flows skewing any trade ideas.
Thursday 29 June 10:15 Today's headline red flag data is US GDP, other data points to note are German CPI and US jobless claims. I'll also be keeping a keen eye on tomorrow's PCE data which could be a big market mover. Every data release at the moment
Wednesday 28 June 10:00 Overnight, inflation data from Australia came down more than expected. Along with a similar story from Canada yesterday, this is hopefully a good sign for world inflation. But may induce some short term weakness for the AUD.
Tuesday 27 June 09.30 The JPY is still the weakest currency, but with intervention talk getting louder it feels like it's only a matter of time before the BOJ either abandons yield curve control or buy enough Yen to send USD/JPY lower. There may be a time JPY becomes un-tradable but
Tue 20th June 15:30 US dollar has returned very strong after the American bank holiday, is this due to a re-pricing for a rate hike in July coupled with disappointment over china? or is it simply quarter end flows?
Monday 19th June US bank holiday today, with a very light data calender I think it's prudent to wait until tomorrow before forming a conviction in the direction of the currencies
