The John Elfed Forex Blog

Tuesday 24 June

Despite bombs still dropping, the market has started to look through Middle East concerns, and also tariff concerns. Reasons to be bullish the risk environment are growing, especially as 'once hawkish' FED members are starting to turn dovish. (I wonder if the president's preference to appoint

Weekly Review

A quick look at the daily AUD JPY chart throughout the week starting Monday 16 June, shows less than 50 pips from the open to the close on four consecutive days, indicating the markets lack of decisiveness. Monday started positively enough when it appeared the US was reluctant to get

Thursday 19 June.

Monday 16 June: The week ahead... with a splash of psychology.

The market has been on high eltert since last Wednesday's US marines activity news. Tensions were heightened further following Thursday's escalation. But the new week has begun with the US stating it won't get involved, which has calmed the mood. I would suggest a

Weekly Review

The week starting Monday 9 June was packed with market moving events. Ultimately, the dominant theme was a re-emergence of Middle East concerns. But before events in the Middle East took hold, all appeared well. Tariff talks between the US and China are at least moving in the right direction.

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Thursday 12 June

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Weekly Review

The week starting Monday 2 June was actually a fairly calm week for overall sentiment. But it was a very: down, up, down, up, week for the USD. The dollar started on the back foot as it was the currency hit most by fresh tariff uncertainty. But by Tuesday, poise

Thursday 5 June

Wednesday 4 June

It's been an eventful day in the markets. Soft US data (ADP and SERVICE ISM) has sent the USD lower. A BOC rate hold with a non committal, data dependent, wait and see approach could be deemed as a 'hawkish hold' especially given how 'bearish&

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Weekly Review

The week starting Monday 26 May was another week of changeable headlines, highlighting how fragile overall market sentiment remains. The week began with positivity following the president's announcement that fresh tariffs on Europe would be delayed. The 'risk on' mood was given an extra boost by

Thursday 29 May

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Tuesday 27 May

So far, I haven't had enough conviction to place a trade this week. Weekend news of a delay to Europe tariffs (market positive), plus reports the MOF in Japan are considering curbing the rise in Japanese yields (JPY bearish), has put my recent switch to a 'underlying

Weekly Review

I began the week starting Monday 19 May with an 'underlying risk on' bias. And ended it with a 'risk off' bias. The warning signs where there with the downgrade to the US credit rating, which hit the US dollar in particular. But initially, the downgrade

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Thursday 22 may

Two words at the forefront of the markets mind at the moment are BOND YIELDS. Although by long term historical standards, yields are relatively low. In the modern world, the prospect of a US 10 year above 5% is causing the market a little concern. Even though it's

Tuesday 20 May

Weekly Review

The week starting Monday 12 May began with 'tentative positivity' with news of positive Tariff negotiations, particularly regarding China (tariffs are reduced for the time being). 'Risk assets' gapped higher. The positivity was given an extra boost on Tuesday with lower than expected US CPI data,