The John Elfed Forex Blog

Currency overview

Viable opportunity Vs trade.

With US markets closed for labour day (I hope you're enjoying the long weekend) it may be a slow Forex day. So I'd like to touch on a little psychology, and the difference between a viable opportunity and actually placing a trade. A good example of

Weekly review

This week began with calm tones, helped by China's attempts to boost its economy. The good mood continued on Tuesday with 'bad news is good news' data from the US, which I felt created a 'risk on' opportunity. The dollar was so weak that

Friday 1 September 14:15 UK time.

NFP has been reported, and although the number is a slight beat, the market has focused and the unemployment rate which is at its highest in 18 months. Sending us back to the bad news is good news narative. Stocks are up, yields are down and the dollar is weakening.

Thursday 31 August 18:20 UK time.

Today's PCE data came in as forecast, in an ideal world I would have liked to see the number come down, this would have given us a continuation of the 'risk on' soft landing theme. But the as forecast data, combined with lower initial jobless claims

Thursday 31 August 09:30 UK time

Another day, another important data release from the US. Today it's PCE, will the numbers continue the soft landing 'risk on' theme? With the USD and JPY a little stronger this morning (possibly profit taking ahead of the release) it's not an occasion I

Wednesday 30 August 18:30 UK time

For the second day in a row, soft data from the US keeps the 'risk on' momentum going, the USD and JPY are weak, gold is up, the VIX is down. Soft landing is very much on the cards. A short USD or JPY trade is very viable.

Wednesday 30 August 09:30 UK time

Tuesday 29 August 15:20 UK time

Disappointing US job openings and poor consumer confidence gives credence to no more rate hikes from the FED. Which has created a 'risk on' potential trade. Yields are down,the DXY is plummeting, stocks are up and the dollar is weakening. It's just a case of

Tuesday 29 August 09:25 UK time

Barring an out of the blue catalyst, today I will be waiting for the US consumer confidence data (15:00 UK time) before forming a conviction in the direction of the currencies.

Monday 28 August 15:20 UK time

With a sparce data calendar today, the FX market is very muted. There is a mild 'risk on' tone, thanks to China's attempts to boost its economy. The JPY is the weakest currency, as I would expect in a calm market helped by interest rate differentials.

Weekly review

I only placed one trade this past week, which was on Monday, a GPB JPY long. The yen weakened Monday, after an announcement about raising the national minimum wage. This signals that Japan's long term fear is still disinflation, therefore any interest rate hike or change in policy

Thursday 24 August 17:05 UK time

After a busy day, I've arrived at the charts to see the US dollar has been strong today, yields are up, the VIX is up a little and stocks are down (even after a great earnings report from Nvidia). But as far as I'm concerned, there

Wednesday 23 August 17:30 UK time

PMI'S came In soft across the board, with the service sectors also softening. Which is what the market has been waiting for. Today bad news is good news and talk of peak rates and rate cuts is back on the agenda. Bond yields are down, the VIX is

Tuesday 22 August 17:45 UK time

Fairly quiet day in the FX market with no particular stand-out news. The dollar weakness didn't last. The euro has been particularly weak today but I've not seen any headlines suggesting why. So as far as I'm concerned it's a case of

Tuesday 22 August 07:30 UK time.

The dollar has weakened overnight, I believe thanks to china trying to stem the flow of yuan weakness. With US yields still high I currently don't have conviction that this USD weakness will last (Adam Button has written a very good article on the china situation). My decision

Monday 21 August 10:50 UK time

Friday 18 August.

Following a very relaxing nine day break in Turkey ( a country I've never been to before but can highly recommend, great weather, friendly locals and fantastic day trips) I'm currently at Dalaman airport with WiFi and time to spare before departure. I've done some

Market close Tuesday 15 August

Here is a snap shot of my thoughts on the relevant instruments at the moment: Risk environment: fairly negative, china news causing continued worry, even stimulus could only provide a brief rest-bite. Compounding the negativity, Fitch have now given warnings about US bank stocks. USD: nothing has changed from my

Monday 14 August 20:00 UK time

A few weeks ago, when US inflation started to meaningfully come down, the expectation in the market was for the beginning USD weakness. But it's not played out like that. With the US economy still strong and helped by the fact that most mortgages in the US are

Weekly review

The week started with relative calm but uncertainty. With the market seemly absorbing the fitch downgrade and Apple negativity, Talk of a soft landing was prevalent but the market was waiting for US CPI for clarity. In the lead up to CPI, the only trade I was comfortable in was

Paid-members only

Friday 11 August 07:30 UK time

Thursday 10 August 12:00 UK time.

The dollar is showing signs of weakness across the board. It appears the market is considering a soft CPI number, which would weaken the USD. This is an occasion where an anticipation trade is a viable option. Whereby a short USD trade would be placed in anticipation of a soft

Wednesday 9 August. 15:00 UK time.

Fairly muted FX markets today, to be expected with CPI due tomorrow. The market seems to have a absorbed yesterdays negativity and I still hold the view that the JPY is shortable at 4hr support or a on a breakout that creates 1hr support. I'm actually off on

Tuesday 8 August 17:10 UK time.